China is facing a new and growing weather threat. Authorities are warning extreme floods could hit parts of the country’s arid north including areas around its vast desert regions. This marks a clear shift from historical patterns where these areas were associated with drought, not flooding.
2026 flood season warning
China’s 2026 flood season began on April 1 and is likely to bring more severe flooding to the traditionally arid north of country. Typhoons may also move northward and affect inland areas.
From June to August, some areas including Songliao River basin, Hai River, Pearl River may experience major floods. In the same period, middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and northern Xinjiang may face drought.
China’s Ministry of Water Resources has forecast weather patterns for 2026. South might have heavy rainfall. Northern and inland regions could face dry spells.
The rain belt is moving north
One of the most significant developments is structural shift in where China’s rain falls.
In the final weeks of 2025, rain became the new normal across China’s dry north. And, in Inner Mongolia’s capital Hohhot, annual precipitation was closing in on 800 millimetres. In Beijing, several meteorological stations had already logged more than 1,000 millimetres, nearly twice the city’s typical annual rainfall.
Floods in northwest China’s Gansu province, Inner Mongolia, and other areas resulted in 73 dead or missing in 2025. North China’s flood season ended about a month later than usual. Across the country, floods affected 22.7 million people, with 404 killed or missing, and caused 165 billion yuan in direct economic losses.
This northward push of rainfall is overwhelming infrastructure that was never built to manage heavy flooding.
The Taklamakan: China’s driest desert, now flooding
The Taklamakan Desert in Xinjiang is the most extreme example of this reversal.
This desert has a typical temperate continental climate with frequent droughts and low precipitation. Annual average precipitation in the desert is less than 100 millimetres, while the annual average evaporation level is as high as around 3,000 millimetres.
Yet that landscape is now flooding.
In 2024, flooding hit Taklamakan Desert in Tarim Basin in northwest China. Videos on social media showed submerged roads. Flooding was triggered by high temperatures, snowmelt, heavy rainfall. These conditions caused Tarim River tributaries to overflow prompting the Xinjiang Water Resources Department to activate flood emergency response.
Since mid-August 2024, temperatures had exceeded 40C in some parts of the desert. Rapid snowmelt in surrounding mountains increased flow from tributaries into the Tarim River. Rainfall in July that year was 27% above average. Between August 17 and 27, rainfall in the area of the Tarim River was four times higher than usual.
This is not a one-off event. In July 2021, floods affected an area of over 300 square kilometres in the Taklamakan Desert, with embankments breached and power poles knocked over. During the summer of 2022, the main stream of the Tarim River and its tributaries also flooded.
Glacial melt is making it worse
The floods in Xinjiang are driven by more than just rainfall.
Continued high temperatures have accelerated glacial melting in mountainous areas and caused flash floods, mudslides, and landslides across many places in Xinjiang. The China Meteorological Administration warned that glacial melting in Xinjiang poses a high risk of dam failure on a tributary of the Aksu River near China’s border with Kyrgyzstan.
From 2001 to 2022, average temperatures in Xinjiang rose by 1C compared to 1961-2000 period. Average precipitation increased 16.1%. This warming has also accelerated glacier melt, with the glacial area in Xinjiang shrinking by 11.7% over the past 60 years.
Scientists note that these dual pressures, more rain and faster ice melt, are combining to produce floods in places that historically had neither.
Southern China floods simultaneously
While the north and desert regions face flood risk, southern China is already dealing with active flooding right now.
In early June 2026, China saw heavy rains across multiple provinces in southern China with nearly 10,000 residents evacuated in Guizhou after torrential rains caused flooding in the area. Flood-response measures were activated in Hunan and Guangxi.
Parts of northeast China, north China, and regions along the Yangtze River have recorded rainfall levels more than double their usual levels, increasing pressure on local flood-prevention systems.
Reservoir levels and flood control preparedness
China entered its annual flood season with its 9,677 key reservoirs holding a combined 476.4 billion cubic metres of water as of June 1, roughly 10% above the seasonal average. Officials say the ample reservoir storage provides a solid foundation for flood control and water supply management.
However, the challenge is not just storage capacity. It is the speed and location of the water. Desert and arid-region infrastructure is not built to handle sudden high-volume flooding. Roads, embankments, and power infrastructure in these areas have repeatedly failed when hit by flash floods and meltwater surges.
Infrastructure and agriculture at risk
Flooding is expected to threaten infrastructure, disrupt transport networks, displace communities. Drought may reduce crop yields. Agriculture is particularly vulnerable. Authorities are stepping up efforts to manage these risks.
Xinjiang is a critical agricultural zone. Xinjiang accounts for production of about 20% of the world’s cotton, a water-thirsty crop. Flash floods and glacial meltwater events can damage crops, breach irrigation infrastructure, and cause soil erosion across farmland that took decades to establish.
The broader climate pattern
China has experienced a 20% increase in incidents of heavy rainfall since 1961, according to the China Meteorological Administration. Scientists say the floods are consistent with an increase in extreme weather due to climate change. In many parts of China, dramatic changes in precipitation have been seen in recent decades.
The Taklamakan and Gobi Desert region has experienced a rise in extreme precipitation events, leading to numerous floods and other rainfall-related hazards in recent years, resulting in loss of life and property.
China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Each 0.5-degree temperature increase would lead to a $60 billion rise in annual flood losses, according to researchers in Nanjing.
The deserts, once synonymous with thirst, are now part of China’s flood risk map. That is a shift authorities can no longer afford to overlook.