Fresh US intelligence assessments suggest China may be preparing to supply new air defence systems to Iran in the coming weeks, a move that could complicate the already fragile ceasefire between Tehran and Washington.
The development comes days after Beijing positioned itself as a key player in brokering a pause in hostilities between Iran and the United States. With US President Donald Trump scheduled to visit China next month for talks with Xi Jinping, the timing of the intelligence inputs adds a sensitive diplomatic layer to the evolving situation.
CNN has mentioned three people familiar with the assessments as saying that the proposed transfer involves shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems, commonly known as MANPADS. These weapons had posed a significant threat to low-flying US aircraft during the recent five-week conflict and could again become a factor if tensions flare up.
Covert routes and strategic signalling
Two sources indicated that Beijing may be exploring indirect routes through third countries to move the systems, potentially obscuring their origin. The intelligence also points to Iran using the ceasefire window to rebuild its military capabilities with support from foreign partners.
A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington dismissed the claims, stating, “China has never provided weapons to any party to the conflict; the information in question is untrue.”
“As a responsible major country, China consistently fulfills its international obligations. We urge the US side to refrain from making baseless allegations, maliciously drawing connections, and engaging in sensationalism; we hope that relevant parties will do more to help de-escalate tensions,” CNN cited the spokesperson as saying.
Earlier, Chinese officials had maintained that Beijing was working towards de-escalation since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict.
Battlefield signals and unanswered questions
Speaking at a press conference earlier this week, Trump said a US F-15 fighter jet downed over Iran had been hit by a “handheld shoulder missile, [a] heat-seeking missile.” Iran, for its part, claimed it used a “new” air defence system, though it did not specify its origin.
It remains unclear whether that system had any Chinese link.
Experts view any direct transfer of MANPADS by the Chinese government as a notable escalation, especially since Beijing has so far been linked primarily to supplying dual-use technologies that help Iran sustain its weapons and navigation capabilities.
Balancing ties without direct confrontation
One source familiar with the intelligence suggested China is unlikely to openly align itself in the conflict, recognising the risks of direct confrontation with the US and Israel. Instead, Beijing seems to be walking a careful tightrope: quietly keeping Iran on its side while publicly sticking to a neutral stance that keeps it out of direct confrontation.
China’s dependence on Iranian oil and its long-standing economic and military ties with Tehran continue to shape this approach. At the same time, officials could argue that air defence systems are defensive in nature, distinguishing their support from Russia’s role in the conflict.
Moscow, according to previous reports, has been assisting Iran with intelligence sharing that has enabled it to target US assets in the region.
Iran, in turn, has supported Russia’s war in Ukraine by supplying Shahed drones, while continuing to export large volumes of oil to China despite sanctions.