As the second phase of polling for the West Bengal Legislative Assembly concluded on 29 April 2026, exit polls began to appear for all four states, including Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, along with the Union Territory of Puducherry. Remarkably, all major exit polls forecast the return of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance in the Assam elections, varying only in the number of constituencies predicted, from 70 to over 100 in the 126-member Assembly.
The opposition alliance led by the Indian National Congress, along with other contenders, was projected to win well below the majority mark of 64 seats. While the BJP, expecting a third consecutive term in Dispur, was predicted by all pollsters to cross the halfway mark independently, the Congress, led by Lok Sabha Deputy Leader of the Opposition Gaurav Gogoi, was projected to secure nearly half the required majority. People’s Pulse, in its exit poll, indicated a decisive mandate in favour of the National Democratic Alliance, with the BJP projected to win between 69 and 73 seats.
According to the survey, BJP ally Asom Gana Parishad may win 8 to 11 seats, while another ally, the Bodoland People’s Front, is expected to secure 8 to 9 seats. On the other hand, the Congress is projected to win only 22 to 26 seats, with other parties such as the All India United Democratic Front, United People’s Party Liberal, Communist Party of India-Marxist, along with independents, expected to win a negligible number of seats. Today’s Chanakya indicated a landslide victory for the BJP-led alliance, projecting 93 to 111 seats, while the opposition bloc may secure 14 to 32 seats and others remain limited to two seats.
Similarly, the JVC exit poll projected 88 to 101 seats for the BJP-AGP-BPF alliance, 23 to 33 seats for the opposition alliance, and around five for others. Metrize projected 85 to 95 seats for the ruling alliance, 25 to 32 seats for the opposition bloc, and 6 to 12 for others. Kamakhya Analytics also predicted 85 to 95 seats for the BJP bloc and 26 to 39 seats for the opposition alliance, with 0 to 3 seats for others. Axis My India projected 88 to 100 seats for the saffron alliance and 24 to 36 seats for the opposition group, with the BJP alone expected to win 70 to 80 seats and the Congress 22 to 30 seats independently. It allotted 0 to 3 seats to others.
Poll Diary forecast 86 to 101 seats for the NDA, 15 to 26 seats for the Congress front, and none for others. People’s Insight projected 88 to 96 seats for the BJP, 30 to 34 seats for the Congress alliance, and 2 to 4 seats for others. At the same time, P-MARQ estimated 82 to 94 seats for BJP allies and 30 to 40 seats for the opposition, while Janmat predicted 87 to 98 seats for the saffron alliance and 29 to 30 seats for the Congress front. Recently, while addressing the media, Assam Chief Electoral Officer Anurag Goel stated that preparations had been completed for the result day on 4 May, with counting set to begin at 8 am simultaneously across 40 designated centres in 35 counting districts. The Election Commission of India has deputed 126 counting observers (IAS officers from the rest of India) for Assam, along with 2,348 micro-observers (all central government employees) for the process.
A total of 5,981 counting officials will be deployed on counting day, with final results expected by the evening. Terming it a historic election, he noted that 85.91 per cent of Assam’s 2,50,54,463 electors participated in the single-phase polling on 9 April to elect their representatives from among 722 candidates representing various political parties and independent contenders. He added that voter turnout in the last five Assembly elections in Assam stood at 82.02 per cent in 2021, 84.64 per cent in 2016, 76.05 per cent in 2011, 75.72 per cent in 2006, and 75.16 per cent in 2001. Despite being projected as winners in all exit polls, ground realities remain uncomfortable for the saffron party, as several leaders have publicly accused party workers of betrayal.
Recently, state minister Ranjeet Kumar Dass, contesting from the Bhowanipur-Sarbhog Assembly constituency, remarked that he was not only fighting his opponent (from the CPI-M) but also facing conspirators within his own party. He further threatened to expose them. Another BJP legislator made similar remarks, criticising the ill intentions of a section of party workers. Subsequently, BJP Assam president Dilip Saikia appealed to party leaders and workers to avoid public out burts , warning that such behaviour is not in keeping with the party’s culture and values. There is speculation that some candidates from the ruling alliance may lose by narrow margins. The BJP came to power in Assam after the 2016 Assembly elections, ending the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress rule that had lasted for 15 consecutive years, with Sarbananda Sonowal assuming office as Chief Minister.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP-led alliance secured a comfortable victory with 75 seats, and Himanta Biswa Sarma became Chief Minister. Sarma, who had previously served as a cabinet minister in the Congress government, joined the BJP in 2015. During his tenure, he has undertaken major initiatives ranging from infrastructure development and w e l f a r e programmes to eviction drives on government land and transparent recruitment of over one lakh youths across various departments, earning recognition across Assam and the country. However, some of his actions have drawn criticism, particularly his public statements about forcibly pushing back Bangladeshi Muslim infiltrators across the international border. Recently, India’s acting High Commissioner in Dhaka was summoned by the Bangladesh Foreign Ministry to convey its displeasure over some of Sarma’s remarks regarding the pushback policy.
In a recent television interview, he elaborated that the policy was being implemented at night, taking advantage of the periodic absence of Border Guard Bangladesh personnel. Sarma also asserted that such measures would continue in order to create conditions that would compel them to leave Assam voluntarily. Officials in Dhaka questioned his intent, especially after he stated that many in Assam prefer a hostile relationship between New Delhi and Dhaka, as improved relations reduce the likelihood of pushing back illegal migrants. The Bangladesh government strongly condemned his remarks, calling them inappropriate and detrimental to bilateral relations.
THE WRITER IS A GUWAHATI-BASED SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STATESMAN.