Logo

Logo

Thaw in the Frost~II

Washington has other issues to be worried about as well. Seoul has threatened to terminate a military intelligence-sharing pact with Tokyo. If implemented, this would undermine trilateral cooperation with Washington and decrease the US presence in the region. It is unfortunate that new irritants are bedevilling the security environment in the region when better trilateral cooperation is needed.

Thaw in the Frost~II

This handout photo taken on August 25, 2019 and provided by South Korean Navy shows South Korean Navy's special forces participating in a military drill re-named "East Sea territory defence training" at the easternmost islets of Dokdo. South Korea on August 25 began two days of war games to practise defending disputed islands off its east coast against an unlikely attack from Japan, further stoking tensions between the Asian neighbours. (handout / South Korean Navy / AFP)

While both Japan and South Korea are struggling to find a solution to the trade dispute between the two following President Moon Jae-in’s conciliatory message to Tokyo, the security dynamics in the region is unlikely to change for the better. Escalating tensions between the two could change longstanding economic and security structures in the region across the board, possibly benefitting China and North Korea.

If both Tokyo and Seoul remain locked in the trade and other disputes, trilateral cooperation with the US would be weakened. This may allow Beijing to boost its influence in economic, technology and security fields in East Asia amid US-China trade and currency spats. Also, if security relations between Japan, South Korea and the US remain frayed for whatever reasons, including the costsharing issue of American troops in South Korea, this could lead to failure to deter North Korea from developing new weapons and undermine multilateral efforts to contain the nuclear threat from Pyongyang.

It is desirable therefore that Trump does his best to persuade Abe to soften his hardline stance against South Korea and help to find a way to ease the Tokyo- Seoul strife for the sake of regional peace and stability. In Bangkok, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo encouraged his Japanese and South Korean counterparts to make efforts to resolve their bitter dispute through dialogue. The efforts proved without success as both Japanese and South Koreans showed no sign of yielding space to the other. There is no doubt that if ties between Tokyo and Seoul worsen further, with the US unable to do much, “there could be long-term strategic implications” in Asia. There could be other fallouts too.

Advertisement

The worsening of Japan- South Korea ties is likely to dampen the possibility of Seoul joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact, a Japan-led high-standard regional trade agreement, which could make South Korea more dependent on China’s economy. After Trump announced US withdrawal from the TPP, Abe tried to resurrect the free trade pact by launching TPPII by taking the lead. The TPP comprises 11 Asia-Pacific nations such as Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, and Singapore. Although China and South Korea are not members of the trade pact, Seoul had shown interest in participating in it.

With the possibility of Seoul rethinking its stance on the TPP-II following deterioration of bilateral ties, South Korea could drift more towards China for economic support, giving Beijing more leverage over Seoul in any conflict of interest and affect US efforts to diversify supply chains away from China. If the Japan- South Korea economic connection remains fragile, China would become a leading provider of semiconductors and next-generation 5G network equipment. If Japan sticks to its policy of reducing exports to South Korea by continuing its retaliatory measures, China could “benefit” as an alternative supplier to its neighbour, and thereby create openings to strengthen China’s semiconductor industry.

It would be something like two cats fighting over a loaf of bread and with the monkey walking away with all of it in the cat fight. Tokyo-Seoul rift could let China dominate the development of 5G technology, which will enable telecommunication devices to wirelessly connect to almost all products and services at extremely high speeds, including those related to military affairs. At present South Korea’s electronics giant Samsung Electronics Co. is one of the leading 5G equipment providers in the world, with Japan remaining a crucial parts supplier to the firm.

The US strongly feels that smooth cooperation in technology would serve the economic and security interests of both Tokyo and Seoul as Beijing’s rise in the 5G field would jeopardize the national security of the US and its allies. The US is worried of such a possibility if the dispute is not resolved. Washington has other issues to be worried about as well. Seoul has threatened to terminate a military intelligence- sharing pact with Tokyo. If implemented, this would undermine trilateral cooperation with Washington and decrease the US presence in the region. It is unfortunate that new irritants are bedevilling the security environment in the region when better trilateral cooperation is needed.

The US needs reassurance from its allies so that China’s growing power can be balanced and also address North Korea’s missile and nuclear issue. As regards the North Korean issue, Japan has been completely isolated. While Abe has not succeeded to have a summit meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jungun to resolve the abduction issue, Moon has had more than one summit with the North Korean leader and has pledged to deepen ties with the North to challenge Japan. By establishing and deepening economic ties with the North, Moon aspires to take a giant leap forward and catch up with Japan’s dominance.

Some Japanese analysts suspect that Moon has a hidden agenda to form a united country with North Korea that has nuclear weapons by breaking off from Japan and the US. Though such suspicion is far-stretched, the desirable path could be increased cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea in order to deal with North Korea. If this fails, it will give only added confidence to North Korea to continue pursuing its missile and nuclear programme. The irony at present is that Trump seems to be getting cosy with Kim Jong-un rather than try and help Tokyo and Seoul “to mend their tearing relationship”. By not doing its bit as desired to help out Tokyo and Seoul, Trump is ignoring the fact that US influence in the region will be greatly diminished.

Trump also showed his diplomatic immaturity by downplaying Pyongyang’s firing of projectiles ~ five rounds in two weeks ~ saying that they were “shortrange missiles” that cannot reach the US. Abe’s objective is far from clear. While he delinks the imposition of export controls with the issue of forced labour, he at the same time says that South Korea cannot be trusted. Unless the issue of such mutual distrust is removed, there could not be any solution in the horizon. To make matter worse, Japan gives South Korea the cold shoulder as a security partner as per the draft white paper on defence for 2019. In the paper, Japan has lowered South Korea’s standing as an important security cooperation partner, reflecting the worsening of bilateral ties.

In a chapter dedicated to Japan’s security cooperation with countries other than its closest ally, the United States, South Korea came second in 2018. But its place has fallen to the fourth slot this year after Australia, India and the Association of South East Asian Nations. When the white paper is made public around mid-September, showing the downgrade of South Korea, the regional security issue shall get more complicated. This calls for astute diplomatic handling by the three stakeholders ~ the US, Japan and South Korea.

(Concluded)

(The writer is former ICCR Chair Professor at Reitaku University, Japan, and currently Lok Sabha Research Fellow)

Advertisement