The BJP presented itself as a secular party in Kerala and it is bound to improve its fortunes when votes of the 6 April Assembly election are counted on 2 May.

Aligning with the BJDS, the political party of followers of Sree Narayana Guru who preached “one God, one religion and one caste,” the saffron party has fielded more than 10 Christian and at least five Muslim candidates and proved itself to be as secular as any party in the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front or the Opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front.

Although the BJP’s Chief Minister candidate E Sreedharan, the legendary ‘Metro-man,’ thinks he can pull it off, the Kerala unit of the party is not so optimistic. The LDF and the UDF have been in power alternatively for the last four decades, but neither has much to write home about. Sreedharan thinks he can transform the State.

Except for the Kochi Metro, there is hardly any infrastructure in Kerala. Not a single industry has come up in the last two decades. A fully literate State, Sreedharan thinks he can turn it into an industrial hub. Age has not deterred him from a house-to-house campaign. If the BJP wins 10 seats or more in the 140-member House, it can lead to a hung Assembly.

The only time Kerala faced a hung Assembly was in 1965, resulting in a prolonged period of President’s rule, which no party wants. The strength of the House then was 133. No political party was able to mobilise 67 members to form the government and the Assembly was dissolved. That situation is unlikely to be repeated.

The winning Front should get a minimum of 71 seats to form the new government. If the LDF emerges as the largest Front but falls short of 71 by a few seats, the Muslim League, major constituent of the UDF, is likely to cross over to the LDF. It has done so in the past and will have no hesitation in repeating it.

The two parties are already in touch, according to Malayalam media. If both Fronts bag more or less equal number of seats without touching 71, the CPI(M) coming to the rescue of the UDF or the Congress extending support to the LDF cannot be ruled out. Only in Kerala are the Congress and the CPI(M) rivals; in all other States, including West Bengal, they are allies.

Whoever forms the new government will find the economy of the State shattered by Covid-19 and the seeming affluence of the people illusionary. Remittances from the Gulf which kept the standard of living relatively high, have diminished steeply and the accumulated borrowing of the State has exceeded Rs three lakh crore.

Rice production in the State has dwindled from 45 lakh tonne per annum to just six lakh tonnes. Even vegetables raised in the State are grossly inadequate for its needs. But for the liberal grants from the Union government, starvation deaths could not have been avoided. Compared with neighbouring States, Kerala has missed the development bus. Only a stable and dynamic government can pull the State out of the morass.