Elections in Pakistan are scheduled in the middle of the year. As per the country’s constitution an interim government must be in place prior to the elections. Thus, it will be sworn in by 31 May and the new government will be formed by end July. As elections draw close, open interference by the Supreme Court and deep state in matters which remain the purview of the legislative seem to increase.

The disqualification of Nawaz Sharif for life on charges of unbecoming conduct of a political leader by the Supreme Court is in consonance with the desire of the deep state, which presumed him to be a threat seeking to curb its powers.

Subsequent orders to the media to stop broadcasting speeches against the court are aimed at reducing the ability of the Sharif family to gain public sympathy and enhance vote banks, as presently the former prime minister is the only one who is ranting against the deep state.

Further, as claimed by Sharif, his party has not been provided with a level playing field as most of its leaders are either facing cases in accountability courts or contempt charges. Manipulation of elections of the Senate chairman and removing the elected leader in Baluchistan, while replacing him with a non-entity are clear proof. An almost open action by the deep state to prevent the present ruling party from regaining power is becoming evident.

In an article titled, ‘Coercing the media’ in Dawn on 18 April, noted columnist Zahid Hussain stated, “over the past few weeks, a TV channel Geo) has reportedly been taken off by cable operators or shuffled out of the main bouquet of news channels as punishment for being too outspoken on certain sensitive issues.” He adds that, “no one dare challenge these unlawful and arbitrary actions”. Geo is reportedly back after an agreement with the army on limiting its criticism.

He also mentions the creeping expansion of the power of the deep state in media gagging, enforced disappearances and political manipulation. Further, the judiciary encroaching on the power of the executive has enabled the deep state to strengthen its stranglehold.

In a seminar titled, ‘National seminar on sanctity of ballot’ on 17 April in Islamabad, five major Pakistani political parties expressed concern over the growing interference of the judiciary and military in matters of the legislative. Their speeches were blocked by the media on Supreme Court directions.

Another aspect which gained prominence in the seminar was almost unanimous support to the ongoing Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM). It is a social movement for Pashtun human rights launched by a young activist, Mansoor Pashteen.

The movement has grown in a short span of three months. It covers regions of FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan. The movement would impact coming elections, if they remain unrigged. Its largest rally in early April drew tens of thousands of supporters in Peshawar despite a complete media blackout, forcing it to employ only social media.

Intelligent use of social media has enhanced its international visibility and has made an open army crackdown difficult without international condemnation. Members at the rally carried pictures of those dead or missing and questioned unchecked military authority in the region. The Pakistan army chief ominously suggested that this was an engineered protest which threatened to reverse counter-terrorism efforts by the army. He hinted at a crackdown.

With Nawaz’s PML (N), slowly being nudged out by the deep state, the other frontrunners appear to be Asif Ali Zardari and Imran Khan. Imran, initially considered the favourite of the army is being pushed away as he is considered unreliable and possibly pro-India. Zardari appears to be gaining ground.

This was evident when the National Accountability Board dropped all charges against him in November 17, paving the way for his re-emergence. Pressure from the US, flowing through multiple sources, would find almost nil participation or elected representatives from any jihadi groups including the MML.

US pressure on Pakistan to stop support to the Taliban and Haqqani network continues to mount. President Trump wants action from Pakistan and has thus begun redeploying air assets in Afghanistan. The US is seeking to bring the Taliban and Haqqani network to the table.

Pakistan’s tensions with Afghanistan are on the rise. With China refusing to grant a further $5 billion loan and Pakistan unwilling to turn to the IMF, as it remains under US influence, the country is compelled to seek funds from its diaspora by offering bonds.

India continues to exert pressure on the border. Strong statements by the Indian army chief, General Bipin Rawat of his willingness to up the ante as also call the Pakistani nuclear bluff, a new fear on an Indian doctrine seems to be emerging in Pakistan’s security circles.

This doctrine is being billed as the ‘Bipin doctrine’ and indicates India’s willingness to undertake surgical strikes, despite Pakistani threats and possible consequences. The rapid elimination of militants in Kashmir is only adding to their woes. The approach of the Modi government to avoid any talks has them concerned about increasing threats on all fronts.

With a declining economy, growing pressure from the US, increasing power of the PTM, enhanced threats from India, the deep state needs to calibrate its steps carefully. It needs a puppet regime which would follow it without question. Internally, by gagging the media and displaying its power of coercion, it has no entity which can question it.

In this environment of confusion Pakistan is heading into elections. Whichever party forms the government would do so with the backing and support of the army. The increased hold of a combined judiciary-military grouping on the executive would ensure that the civilian government would not have any leeway and would remain solely to face international pressure and local backlash, while the army rules from behind the throne.

Nawaz’s attempt to regain control has placed him at the entrance to a jail; no one else would ever attempt the same. Whether the elections will be rigged or fair, time alone will tell; but the next prime minister has already been decided by the army.

The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.