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Pandits, Jammuites and the BJP

Kashmiri Pandits had traditionally been Congress supporters. In the 1970s and 80s the political fight in Jammu and Kashmir was…

Pandits, Jammuites and the BJP

Kashmiri Pandits had traditionally been Congress supporters. In the 1970s and 80s the political fight in Jammu and Kashmir was between the Congress and National Conference mainly. The PDP was not born then and BJP was politically confined to two or three constituencies of Jammu city.

Since J & K is a state which is overwhelmingly Muslim (68 per cent)  and BJP was then considered to be a small Hindu-minded communal party, not acceptable to the people at large, the choice was between NC and Congress. Since NC was essentially a Muslim-oriented party( a new incarnation of Muslim Conference), which talked of autonomy and pre-1953 position for J&K, it was very popular among Kashmiri Muslims.

The Hindus of Jammu mainly voted for the Congress and the Muslims of Jammu province voted for both NC and Congress. Congress had a fair amount of support among the Kashmiri Muslims also, especially in the hilly outskirts of the valley. A number of top Congress leaders like Mufti Muhammad Sayeed, Saifuddin Soz and Taj Moiuddin were from the Kashmir valley. A number of Gujjar leaders were from the Congress.

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The scenario started changing after the death of Mrs. Indira Gandhi. The Pandits had a soft corner in their hearts for Nehru because he was a Pandit by birth and Indira was in their eyes a Kashmiri “batain” (pandit lady) and they were extremely proud of her. Their confidence in the Congress was shattered when in 1990-92 India was unable to protect their interests. They had to flee Kashmir in the wake of unprecedented persecution by the Kashmiri Muslims as a part of a bigger game plan of Pakistan to fully Islamise Kashmir by purging it of all Hindu minorities.

Overnight the Pundits became as helpless as orphans. They had always considered the government of India as their protector and when this government couldn’t protect them they started looking for other political alternatives. In the early 1990s, BJP took an upward swing with the Rath yatra and Babri masjid  demolition. The Pandits found an alternative to the Congress and there was a mass migration from Congress to BJP. Now there is hardly any Pandit who supports the Congress.

For the Hindus of Jammu the situation is quite different. In the elections of 2014 a number of Jammuite Hindus were carried away by the Modi wave, like other north Indian Hindus but the switchover from Congress to BJP was not 100 per cent. Roughly 60 per cent of them shifted to BJP but the rest still remained with Congress.

In fact the Hindus of the hilly areas of northern India like Himachalis, Garwalis and Dogras/Ladakhis have a natural tendency to be with Congress. I don’t know the reason why. Their inclination towards the BJP is more peripheral, skin deep. It is not so deep as the bond of other North Indians or Central Indians or Western Indians. In other words, BJP may lose support in Jammu quite easily.

Jammuites have traditionally voted for parties which are likely to come to power in the state so that their MLAs can give them better roads irrigation facilities and employment in Government. Initially they were reluctant to vote for BJP for exactly this reason. It is for this reason that BJP was desperate to come to power even if it meant holding the hands of a party with an ideology opposed to their own. They had simply no other choice. If at least some of the BJP MLAs could not become Ministers, BJP would not get votes in future in Jammu. Jammuites would think that BJP can never get them any benefits even if they sent 25 MLAs to the Assembly.

So to remain in power the BJP MLAs of Jammu have to always remain close to their voters. People of Jammu have shown in the past that they could even vote for Kashmiri parties like NC or PDP.  They have, in the past, sent NC MLAs from Hindu majority areas like Samba, Marh, Bishna and Nagrota. So they can never be taken for granted by the BJP.

The Pandits on the other hand are blind supporters of BJP and especially Modi. Congress had never talked about their rehabilitation in the valley. Modi has done that. Although the Pandits know very well  that it is practically impossible for them to go back to Kashmir, when Modi talks about their “ghar vapasi” it gladdens their hearts and they feel obliged to support him blindly. Even if Modi puts them to extreme inconvenience and makes them stand in huge queues at banks and ATMs, even if he puts restrictions on sale of property after March 2017, they will continue  chanting “Ghar ghar Modi, Har har Modi”— in the same pattern as Kashmiri Muslims in the past adored Sheikh Abdullah.

The fascination of upper caste Hindus, living in northern and western India, with BJP may not however be too deep. They may tolerate some pain for so called imaginary future gain for a few weeks. If there is no relief,  even the ‘sukh bhogi’ upper caste Hindus of the Hindi cow belt may start leaving the BJP fold.

The scheduled castes have already left BJP after the cow slaughter harassments. The Muslims and Christians are likely to vote for those candidates who have the highest chance of defeating BJP. In 2014 BJP was swept to power with only 31 per cent of total votes. If due to disputed and misguided moves like cow slaughter ban and demonetisation, they slip by even three or four percentage points  they will not be able to get even 150 seats. This will leave millions of BJP supporters and workers terribly disappointed. Before it is too late they  properly advise the PM. During the emergency, if Congress supporters had properly advised Indira instead of clapping and singing meaningless praises of sychophancy, she would not have to face the  terrible defeat of 1977.

The writer, a retired IAS officer, was Financial Commissioner, J&K 

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