Bangladesh is gearing up for its next parliamentary elections, expected by the end of this year. From the tenor and mood of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s recent speeches, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the country is getting into election mode.

Last month Hasina, while addressing a public rally in the port city of Chittagong, candidly exhorted people to vote for her Awami League( AL) and in no unambiguous terms asked them to stamp her election symbol, the boat. The message is loud and clear.

As the ruling party is in a huddle with party workers to work out poll strategy and confabulating to choose candidates, the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is still in a quandary on whether or not to contest the elections This is principally because party supremo Khaleda Zia is still in prison battling corruption charges in a case where she is accused of misappropriating enormous funds meant for the welfare of orphans.

Minus Khaleda, the BNP, which had ruled the country till 2006 (barring 1996-2001), and also in partnership with right reactionary and fundamentalist anti-India party, the Jamat e Islami (JeI), looks clueless and with virtually no roadmap.

The huge party is practically run today by Tareq Rahman, Khaleda’s son, now in refuge in London, where he is suspected to be in touch with Pakistani intelligence operatives and issuing diktat to party cadres in Bangladesh to organise agitations, public demonstrations and whipping up anti-AL protests to keep the BNP alive as an entity should the party choose to enter the poll fray.

Meanwhile, BNP has engaged a British lawyer, Lord Carlile to represent Khaleda in the Bangladesh courts to fight the criminal cases against her. Progressives and liberals are opposed to the hiring of this lawyer as Lord Carlile had vehemently opposed the trial of war criminals in Bangladesh as also their execution.

He is seen as a person who supports those who were against the spirit of Bangladesh’s liberation and in favour of Pakistani rule. Either way, the coming months will be worth watching as Khaleda’s release on bail or otherwise from the prison will determine her party’s participation in the polls . Bereft of political power for more than a decade, Khaleda and the BNP are desperate to stage a comeback which seems unlikely as of now.

Even if Khaleda is released on bail in this case, there are other charges which may be pressed against her. So her political survival will be at risk with slapping of more cases with a view to wear her out before the elections.

Other than Khaleda, there doesn’t appear to be any other crowd puller or charismatic leader in the BNP to confront Hasina in the polls. Khaleda’s prolonged incarceration may weaken the party to such an extent that it may be a spent force before the battle is joined. That will be an ideal situation for Hasina.

However, an objective and clinical appraisal of the political scenario would suggest that the election may not be a cakewalk for the Awami League. Some political observers feel that if free and fair elections are held, AL may face a tough time and may at best scrape through with a wafer-thin majority.

This analysis draws on the anti-incumbency factor, AL’s inclination towards some Islamic fundamentalist parties and the minority issue amid apprehensions that Hindus have been facing atrocities including grabbing of their property, forced conversions, and cases of alleged desecration of their places of worship.

All said and done, India should bet on Hasina and her party remaining in power as this in the best interests of India’s security. Amongst all of India’s neighbours, Bangladesh today is seen as the most trusted and proven friend, especially in addressing India’s security concerns.

It may be recalled that it was Prime Minister Hasina who was singly responsible for shutting down of insurgents’ camps; these were allowed to flourish on Bangladesh soil before Hasina assumed power.

Also, Bangladesh afflicted by global terror, is believed to be tackling the menace alongside India. In the given scenario, both countries are now peaking in their relationship and this bonhomie must last.

India has done its bit to help Bangladesh in all respects, be it in handling the Rohingya problem or road and rail connectivity between the two countries, although the sharing of Teesta waters remains an irritant with the government of Bangladesh.

The opposition in all likelihood will exploit this issue to its advantage and cause some dent in bilateral ties. However, if India is able to deliver results before the Bangladesh elections by resolving Teesta, this will brighten Hasina’s electoral prospects.

Against the backdrop of these developments, it was wise on the part of the Indian government to send Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale to Dhaka few days ago. He held long parleys with PM Hasina, other leaders and a host of officials.

It can be safely assumed that Mr Gokhale would have appraised the ground situation and would be able to advise New Delhi on how it should proceed. Amongst many issues, the matter of Teesta waters did come up as also the issue of Rohingyas.

As the countdown for the election begins, India needs to keep a close watch on developments. The opposition, backed by Pakistan-supported groups and terror bodies, is likely to step up activities in the not so distant future.

As it is, there are violent agitations on Dhaka streets on one pretext or the other. Currently, there are disturbances on the quota issue. These may seem insignificant on the surface but such issues have the potential to snowball.

Intelligence outfits from both India and Bangladesh must start countering undesirable activities from hostile quarters. Special attention is called for to keep a hawkish eye on the army as well as on the personal security of Prime Minister Hasina.

The Army has always played a crucial role in Bangladesh politics and ensuring security of Hasina doesn’t require any elaboration as she is very precious to both Bangladesh and India.

The writer is a security analyst and a Bangladesh-watcher who was posted in Dhaka. The views are personal.