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The importance of Gujarat and HP

The Election Commission has sounded the poll bugle for the Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls while the date for Gujarat polls…

The importance of Gujarat and HP

Representative Image (Photo: AFP/File)

The Election Commission has sounded the poll bugle for the Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls while the date for Gujarat polls is yet to be announced. No doubt that these two are important for both major national parties – the BJP and the Congress – as there has been a bipolar contest between the two in both states.

The BJP would like to end 2017 with a victory in both Gujarat and Himachal, in the run up to assembly polls in 2018 and the 2019 general elections. In the 2012 poll, the BJP won 114 out of 182 seats with a vote share of 47.85 per cent in Gujarat while the Congress bagged 61 seats with 38.03 per cent vote share. The BJP is facing strong anti-incumbency in Gujarat as it has been ruling the state from 1995, while the Congress faces this in Himachal. Of the two states, the BJP has higher stakes in Gujarat.

Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah hail from Gujarat. Modi won the 2014 Lok Sabha polls promising a Gujarat model for the whole country. He has been taking visiting foreign dignitaries like Xi Jingpin (China) and Shinzo Abe (Japan) to his home state to show off his achievements. The BJP wants to cash in on Modi’s popularity.

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Secondly, money is no problem as Gujarat is the lifeline for Modi. Thirdly, a splintered Congress after Shankarsinh Vaghela’s exit might help the BJP’s fortunes. Fourthly, the BJP has made detailed poll arrangements allotting workers for each block of 250 homes. Also after the Patel agitation for reservation, the government has provided free education for upper castes. With Gujarat seeing three CMs in the past five years, the BJP leaders admit that it may be difficult to achieve Amit Shah’s target of 150 seats.

The BJP has coined a new slogan Garje Gujarat (Roaring Gujarat). The Patidar agitation launched by Hardik Patel has loosened BJP’s grip over the Patidars, an influential community that has largely supported the BJP in the past. Moreover, the impact of multiple agitations by the OBCs and Dalits has exposed the BJP’s weakness. The traders, the backbone of the BJP, are also disenchanted after demonetisation and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax. The Centre announced changes to the GST recently to mollify businesses.

Also Modi’s Gujarat model heavily in favour of industry has failed to address the other economic concerns. As disenchantment with the Modi government grows, the Congress is trying to mobilize this discontent in its favour. Two generations of youth voters have only seen the BJP. If they are negatively disposed, the party will be in trouble.

Above all, after the exit of Amit Shah and Modi from the Gujarat scene, the BJP is bereft of a leader with mass appeal. Right now, the Congress aims to defeat BJP in Gujarat and retain Himachal Pradesh. This is indeed ambitious going by the dwindling Congress fortunes since 2014. The party will be fighting the polls for the first time under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, who is poised to take over command soon. The Congress campaign has started with an advantage as the Modi government is on the defensive about the economy. Last month Congress leader Ahmed Patel won his Rajya Sabha seat in a nail-biting contest.

Enthused by this success, the Congress has coined its slogan Congress Aave Chhe, (Congress is returning — to power). The BJP has countered it with its Naa Chale, (won’t last!) campaign. The Congress has managed to get Hardik Patel and some Dalit leaders on its side and has promised seat adjustments. But not all is well in the party with seniors being unsure of their position in the Rahul regime. Secondly, it does not have a strong state leader in Gujarat to attract voters. Himachal will be a big test for the ruling Congress. In 2012 the Congress won 36 seats and the BJP 26. The Congress vote share was 42.8 per cent and the BJP’s was 18.7 per cent.

Voting for the 68-seat Himachal assembly will take place on 9 November and the results will be declared on 18 December along with those of Gujarat. Since 1967, Himachal has witnessed a twoparty system of BJP-Congress, and since 1985, no party has been re-elected to power. Besides anti-incumbency, the corruption charges against Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh are a major poll issue. The Congress has failed to find a replacement for Singh who is a sixtime chief minister with a mass base.

There are many disgruntled Congressmen who are ready to jump ship. Last month, Virbhadra Singh met Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi seeking a free hand. To woo the electorate, the BJP has announced sops like the Udan air service, 61 national highways in the state, and Amrit pharmacies for supplying low-cost medicines.

The BJP has not projected any chief ministerial face although Health minister J.P. Nadda is the likely candidate. Gujarat and Himachal polls will be a curtain raiser for next year’s Assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The fortunes of both the BJP and the Congress depend on the results. Losing Gujarat will be a nightmare for Modi and Shah, as the impact of any adverse result in Gujarat will resonate beyond Gujarat.

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