Dhaka is steadily hotting up with hectic political activities at a feverish pitch as parliamentary poll dates drawing closer. Elections are scheduled either at the end of this year or early next year. The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) which was lying dormant and dysfunctional till late, has suddenly embarked upon a flurry of belligerent political activities and appears to be getting direction from some powerful lobby made up of those hostile to the Prime Minister.

BNP was till recently in political hibernation as supremo, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia is in prison and believed to have had a mild stroke rendering her politically irrelevant in the context of election campaigning. As is common knowledge, Khaleda is facing serious graft charges and continues to be prosecuted notwithstanding the fact that her party has engaged a high profile British lawyer to contest the case on her behalf.

What appear significant, however, are the BNP overtures to India for a support and “guidance”. BNP is still undecided if it would at all contest the election. To woo Indian support, BNP had sent a three-member, high-powered delegation to India last week under the leadership of erstwhile Commerce Minister, Amir Khosru. Two other senior party functionaries accompanied him.

During their New Delhi stay, they held long parleys with several think tanks including Institute of Defence and Strategic Analysis (IDSA), Observer Research Foundation (ORF) and Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF).

The visiting BNP team vehemently criticised the Hasina-led Awami League government for its alleged role in exterminating political adversaries in the name of nabbing drug traffickers who are involved in smuggling of drugs from across the border especially from Myanmar, drawing all round condemnation from various human rights groups.

The BNP delegation also tried to highlight the alleged corruption cases involving Hasina and her cohorts on various counts . Their tenor during the interactions was not bereft of any assertions and instead was businesslike and to the point. In sum, they wanted India to hold BNP’s hand extending support to it during the elections. By a theory of elimination, it can be safely assumed that Pakistan will extend all out support to BNP, its long-time friend, using every possible means to subvert Hasina and her regime.

However, the Indian hands, experts on Bangladesh, pointedly told the visitors that BNP pursued opportunistic politics because when they were out of power, they tried to warm up to India making promises but once in power, they openly support anti-India and pro-Pakistani forces and alarmingly harbour multiple Indian insurgents belonging to the Northeast.

Now, in a desperate bid to come back to power, BNP articulated several promises in an apparent bid to elicit support. Yet, judging by the party’s past performance vis-a-vis India, these promises did not cut much ice during the interactions .

In the meantime, back in Dhaka, the issues of ongoing encounters or cross-firing incidents are giving much ammunition to the BNP amid credible reports that if Hasina government does not release Khaleda before Eid ul Fitr, that is in a couple of days, BNP would resort to a street agitation subsequently galvanising into a mass movement posing a threat to Hasina’s government. If Khaleda comes out of prison, then she is expected to use all her charisma and glamour leading the movement from the front. Once in the electoral fray, BNP will prove to be a formidable opposition causing serious challenge to the government in power. Therefore , Hasina needs to tread with caution to deal with the latest developments and any minor lapse of judgement or calculation might cause a dent.

One must always remember that BNP, while in power, had the right-wing, anti-India and pro-Pakistan Islamic fundamentalist party (the Jamaat-e-Islami) as its ally and partner in governance which had helped the latter to consolidate its cadres, abetting radical forces’ agenda to foment terror as seen in the deadly cases in the last two years.

Meanwhile, reports are trickling in about killings of one or two liberals indicating that the extremist forces may bounce back and resort to a renewed killing spree targeting liberals and minority communities. This can prove catastrophic if BNP is out on the streets especially from the electoral point of view. For the government to be confident is alright, but to be overconfident could prove costly.

The writer is a security analyst and former National Security Advisor to the Republic of Mauritius. He has been watching Bangladesh for many years and has also served in Dhaka. Views are personal.