Only the next round of elections in UP, or a contiguous area, will determine how much lost ground Miss Mayawati can recover courtesy her highly dramatic walk-out and resignation from the Rajya Sabha. The formal acceptance
of her resignation letter has actually shut one window ~ the possibility of her changing her mind.

That option was closed when no BJP leader of any standing extended an olive branch; she had no face-saver. It is a matter of argument whether her denying herself “space” in a prestigious national forum will serve the Dalit cause she so passionately espouses: she still had some 18 months to go in the apex legislature, and there would have been ample
opportunity for raising the issues which serve as her political plank.

Now she will have to wage her fight elsewhere, and a return to the “Elders” will be difficult given the reality that the Bahujan Samaj Party has only 19 seats in the UP Vidhan Sabha ~ not enough to ensure her re-election. The offer from Lalu Prasad to facilitate her return to Parliament from Bihar is a left-handed compliment. It means her abandoning
the state of which she has been chief minister more than once.

From a major player on the national stage to a position of limited relevance is indeed a dramatic fall ~ unless she proves herself capable of effectively exploiting hurt Dalit sentiments. Mayawati has never fought shy of a streetscrap,
yet waging a war when no battle-lines are drawn will be a tough task.

For the moment she has projected herself as a champion of the Dalit cause. Her quitting Parliament on the basis of a Dalit voice being stifled in the legislature while her people were being stampeded elsewhere does resonate. She certainly set the tone for a sustained assault on the government in the Rajya Sabha, and despite some combative
performances from Arun Jaitley and Prakash Javadekar it was clear who “lost” the debate.

But will that loss serve to compensate for the poor showing in the Assembly elections a few months ago? As of now she has the support of many non-BJP groups, but political loyalty is fickle and receiving continued support will depend on
how successful she proves in regaining and consolidating the vote-bank which the BJP has captured.

It is true that anti-BJP sentiments currently run strong in the Muslim and Dalit communities, Mayawati will have to execute a solid game-plan to convert that ill-will into a positive support in her favour. Has her resignation punctured the pro-Dalit bubble that the BJP has blown courtesy the Presidential election? Mayawati is “political” enough to have timed her move to thwart that attempt.

Now she has to sustain the pressure, perhaps the most severe test of her chequered career.