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Costs Erdogan may have to pay

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has probably been weakened rather than strengthened by grasping for even more power. Last summer,…

Costs Erdogan may have to pay

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Photo: AFP)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has probably been weakened rather than strengthened by grasping for even more power.

Last summer, he dramatically and personally turned back an attempted military coup, using social media to urge the people of Turkey to resist.

That showed courage as well as shrewdness.

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The April 16 referendum addressed giving significantly expanded power to the once largely ceremonial office of president.

The post of prime minister would be abolished.

The legislature would be expanded and also weakened. The death penalty would probably be restored.

Erdogan and allies quickly declared victory after the voting, but the outcome remains unclear. There are accusations of irregularities and even fraud in handling ballots.

The reported victory margin of 51.4 per cent was well below the government margin in the last parliamentary election.

Controversy over the results is certain to continue for some time, with the possibility that Erdogan may seek to repress dissent. For those observing from other nations, three realities should be kept in mind.

First, in contrast to other Muslim states, Turkey has a history of involvement in both Europe and Central Asia. In 2015, Turkey was president of the G-20.

These nations account for approximately 85 percent of the world's gross economic product. Beginning with the Ataturk revolution of the 1920s, Turkey has been viewed as a bridge between Islam and the West.

Second, since World War II Turkey has maintained good military-security relations with most European nations and the United States, despite both the failure of the European Union to approve membership, and the disastrous US invasion of Iraq.

Turkey possesses strategic sea and land shipping routes, including the Strait of Bosphorus which controls Black Sea access.

Third, Turkey represents a unique marriage of firmly rooted Muslim religious and cultural attitudes with Western governmental and social institutions and practices.

This draws on the nation's Ottoman history, which combined religious and secular outlooks. In "Lords of the Horizon — A History of the Ottoman Empire," Jason Goodwin notes that he writes "about a people who do not exist. The word 'Ottoman' does not describe a place.

Nobody nowadays speaks their language.

Only a few professors can begin to understand their poetry. … (Yet) for six hundred years the Ottoman empire swelled and declined." Although the Industrial Revolution passed by Turkey, today that has changed.

Over the past quarter century, Turkey's economy has moved from uncertainty to powerhouse. Growth has been strong, both corruption and inflation have been reduced, and government red tape and bottlenecks have been steadily eliminated.

Much of the credit belongs to reform Prime Minister and President Turgot Ozal, who held office from 1983 to 1993. He was a close ally of President George H W Bush.

While Turkey has had rocky relations with the EU, the NATO alliance has benefitted from the nation's highly effective military. In the Korean and First Gulf Wars, Turkey was a significant military coalition partner.

In Korea, Turkey's military reconfirmed once again their welldeserved reputation for combat effectiveness.

In Afghanistan, Turkey has had top command responsibilities over the years. The constitutional referendum and resulting controversy complicate US and European foreign policies.

Diplomatic distance between Ankara and Western capitals undeniably is growing.

Yet economic modernisation remains important, Islamic extremism remains under control, and both dimensions encourage positive relations with the West. Astute diplomacy can mitigate frictions.

Ultimately, the Turkish people should essentially define their government and their nation's future.

The writer is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College and author of After the Cold War.

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