Is China a genuine friend of Pakistan or does it just claim to be one? Its actions at the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) meeting prove it is exploiting Pakistan’s weakness to further its own agenda.

During initial discussions of the FATF, China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey withstood US pressure and were standing shoulder to shoulder with Pakistan, in preventing a US backed proposal from being approved.

However, in a subsequent discussion, after the US’ insistence, Saudi Arabia and China jumped the fence, leaving Turkey all alone in supporting Pakistan.

The result was that Pakistan was placed on the ‘Grey’ list for not doing enough and possibly even the ‘Black’ list alongside North Korea and Iran if it fails to submit a satisfactory proposal.

China justified its action by informing Pakistan that it ‘did not want to lose face’ by supporting a move which was doomed to fail. While Saudi Arabia, representing the Gulf Cooperation Council, was convinced by the US to change its stance, there are similar claims that India convinced China for the same, by promising to back it for the Vice Chair of the FATF, which would ultimately give it the chair.

China had never hesitated to support Pakistan in international forums earlier, whether it was blocking Indian entry into the NSG, claiming a similar status for Pakistan or in the UN Security Council(UNSC), where despite every other member seeking to declare Masood Azhar as a UN designated terrorist, China refused, employing its veto power.

China like the rest of the world was aware that Pakistan was likely to be censured in the FATF, hence it could create for Pakistan some breathing space, thus enabling it to wriggle its way out in a couple of months without being subjected to the humility of the Grey list.

China did nothing, neither pressurizing others, nor moving a motion in this regard. It supported Pakistan initially but changed stance rather fast. No nation, especially China, would suddenly turn its back on a supposed ally, unless its seeks its own interests over those of Pakistan.

If it could face the UNSC alone, refusing to buckle under any pressure in the Masood Azhar case, then the FATF should have been a cake walk. If immense international lobbying including from India and the US did not make China budge on admitting India into the NSC, then just an offer of the Vice Chairmanship from India may not alone have convinced it to do a volte face.

China was aware that Turkey was still holding ground and would not bend. For it to convince one more nation to join hands with it to block the move would not have been too difficult.

The fact that it announced its reasons to Pakistan after the meeting, not before, also indicates that it had ulterior motives.

Chinese actions are always well thought out. It has never rushed nor changed stance easily, hence why now? There are claims that China, when it dumps Pakistan in international forums, the earlier being the BRICS summit in 2017, seeks to convey a message to Islamabad that it can only do so much and no more.

Secondly, the same terror groups which it supported in the UNSC have criticized China for its policies on Muslims in Xinjiang province. Reports of China negotiating with the Baluch Freedom Fighters for security of the CPEC and being in talks with the Taliban are indicative that it is slowly believing Pakistan will not change its policies, which could haunt Chinese interests in the long term.

It is also feasible, that when closed door interactions with Pakistan to change its terror support policies fails, then it adopts international forums to convey its displeasure. This could have been one such forum.

Behind all these possibilities are also issues of practicality and long-term goals. China is aware that Pakistan despite its economy growing at over five per cent is facing shortfalls of foreign exchange reserves.

In a short span of three months, Pakistan was forced to borrow USD 1 Billion in two instalments of 500 Million each from the Industrial and Commercial bank of China at a high interest rate of 4.5 per cent solely to maintain reserves.

With it coming onto the ‘Grey’ list and increased pressure from the US and India, unless it acts it would find international funding drying up.

This shortfall in funding would also impact its armed forces, mainly the army, as any government which steps in post the National Assembly elections in July would need to balance national finances.

This would drastically hamper capability development forcing it to either solely bank on nuclear weapons to ward of an Indian threat or turn towards China with a begging bowl.

This is where China would step in, possibly being the only nation, willing to invest in a troubled Pakistan. Its granting loans at high rates of interest would make the Pakistan economy totally dependent on it.

Further, its military supplies to Pakistan, presently over 60 per cent, would only increase. China also has no choice as it has already invested a substantial figure in Pakistan and cannot pull back now.

Pakistan would be like Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Myanmar and fall into the Chinese debt trap. China has in one swoop pushed Pakistan into a corner from which only it can extricate it.

On the outside it would appear as a friend and a benefactor, while the truth is that it has forced Pakistan to its knees making it bank on high cost Chinese loans to survive.

China is known to never support any nation, unless there is some return for it. It has never believed in granting largesse to nations, always loans.

It has, despite claims of friendships ‘deeper than the oceans, higher than the mountains’ proved that its own interests come first, others be damned.

If Pakistan still cannot see through the Chinese game, then it remains a victim of its own short sightedness.

The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.