Even as Tamil Nadu awaits the results on Monday, the public debate is centred around whether actor-turned-neta Vijay’s chemistry can trump the DMK’s formidable arithmetic in this assembly election.
The chemistry induced by Vijay, president of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), became visible after polling on April 23 with many being very vocal about having cast their vote in favour of the actor. Even the TVK’s rivals admitted that the surge for ‘whistle’, the TVK’s symbol, was not confined to urban pockets but witnessed across the state.
This was surprising, given the minimal campaign by the actor compared to the whirlwind tour of either DMK president and Chief Minister MK Stalin or AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS). Prime Minister Narendra Modi also campaigned thrice, in addition to Union Home Minister Amit Shah and a galaxy of BJP stalwarts.
Observers, who initially gave the TVK somewhere around 8 to 10 per cent vote share acknowledging Vijay’s film charisma, have now come to agree that the fledgling party could post no less than 25 per cent. In that case, the TVK could threaten the principal Opposition AIADMK for the third place and emerge as a rival to the DMK. However, electoral arithmetic indicates that Vijay’s chemistry alone is not enough to dethrone the DMK, which heads a formidable 23-party alliance, comprising the Congress, VCK and the Left among others.
Though TVK is believed to have breached the DMK’s captive minority vote bank and poached a large extent of the AIADMK’s support base, it remains to be seen how far voter resentment against both Dravidian majors and the yearning for an alternative will take it.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the DMK alliance secured 47 per cent of the votes polled while the combined vote share of the AIADMK and the BJP, which contested in their respective alliances, was 39 per cent. Significantly, the DMDK and Puthiya Thamizhagam (PT), a Dalit party, as well as former Dy CM, O Panneerselvam (OPS), and a few other leaders are not with the NDA this time. While DMDK and OPS are in the DMK camp, PT is fighting it alone. But, analysts point out that the hopes of the Stalin government that the cash doles to women and other sections would carry it ashore could also be misplaced since in neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, Jagan Mohan Reddy had failed to retain power despite massive direct cash benefits,