Recently, two Congress Dalit leaders made an unannounced visit to BSP chief Mayawati’s Lucknow residence but were reportedly turned away as they did not have a prior appointment. The Congress leadership issued show-cause notices, declaring the visit unauthorised to avoid upsetting alliance partner Samajwadi Party.
Observers say the episode reinforced Mayawati’s stance of maintaining an equal distance from both political blocs led by the BJP and the Congres. Yet politics is known to create alliances when electoral compulsions outweigh ideological differences. “Politics makes strange bedfellows,” according to a famous idiom and the episode resulted in buzz about possible Congress outreach to the BSP.
Whether or not in UP, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party can make an interesting and valuable ally for key players in Punjab such as Congress, BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal despite its declining electoral fortunes, say observers, especially when the fight is for a vote bloc as big as 32 percent.
Aiming to revive the BSP ahead of the 2027 assembly polls, the party has already announced to fly solo in the local bodies elections in Punjab. The Akali Dal had formed an alliance with the BSP for the 2022 Assembly elections after breaking ties with BJP over the Centre’s contentious farm laws.
The BSP was a significant force in Punjab from the late 1980s to the mid-1990s under its Punjabi founder Kanshi Ram. Its best performance.was in the 1992 when the party won nine seats in the assembly elections and performed particularly well in Dalit-majority constituencies in the Doaba region.
The Akali Dal had boycotted the elections due to militancy, allowing the BSP to capture a substantial portion of the anti-Congress vote and emerge as a key opposition force along with the BJP, explains a saffron leader.
In the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP won three of Punjab’s 13 parliamentary seats in an alliance with the Akali Dal, demonstrating that the it’s core Dalit vote bank could decisively influence outcomes when combined with a strong regional partner.
However, fortunes declined which analysts attribute to the centralisation and concentration of power in Uttar Pradesh under Mayawati, lack of strong local leadership and the Congress and Akali Dal reclaiming sections of the Dalit vote.
Today, it’s vote share in Punjab is estimated at around 1.5 to 1.8 per cent with influence largely limited to Doaba, a region which is said to be witnessing substantial BSP action of late. Though weakened, the BSP still retains the ability to influence electoral outcomes in Dalit-dominated pockets, add observers
Both the Congress and BJP can be interested in aligning with the BSP to strengthen their outreach among Punjab’s sizeable Dalit population, which accounts for nearly 32 per cent of the state’s population, they add
For Congress, an alliance with the BSP could help consolidate anti-incumbency and Dalit votes, limiting AAP’s dominance.
For the BJP, which is trying to expand beyond its urban support base, the BSP could help broaden its social coalition. Party sources say the BJP is working on a “non-Jat” social engineering formula to build a winning coalition in a new life without former ally Akali Dal and Dalits are the biggest component of this plan.