Almost since the beginning of the year, social media platforms have been flooded with discussions around so-called “Super El Niño”, with many using the term to make alarming predictions about the Southwest Monsoon — the lifeline of India—in 2026.
Weather experts, however, clarify that there is no official scientific or meteorological classification called “Super El Niño”. And also that despite El Niño conditions, India can still receive normal or even above-normal monsoon rainfall.
“There is definitely an El Niño threat to the monsoon this year. But there is no official meteorological term or definition called ‘Super El Niño’. People sometimes use the phrase informally to describe a strong El Niño event,” according to weather expert Mahesh Palawat.
Besides, historical data also show that El Niño does not always translate into drought-like conditions in India.
“In general, during El Niño years, there is around a 60 per cent chance of below-normal rainfall. That is why Skymet has forecast monsoon rainfall at 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), while the India Meteorological Department projected it at 92 per cent of the LPA,” he said.
Palawat pointed out that in 1997, despite a very strong El Niño, India received 102 per cent rainfall. In contrast, 2004 witnessed weak El Niño conditions, but rainfall dropped sharply to 87 per cent of the LPA. Similarly, in 2006, another weak El Niño year, rainfall was close to normal at 99 per cent. In 2023, despite moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions, India recorded 94 per cent rainfall.
“So, there is considerable variability. A strong El Niño does not automatically mean drought-like conditions in India,” he.says.
This year the IMD has projected below-normal rainfall at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a margin of error of ±5 per cent.
The LPA, based on data from 1971-2020, is 87 cm.
The fact is, other climatic factors, particularly the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also play an important role in influencing the monsoon. For example, in 1997, despite a strong El Niño, the IOD was strongly positive, which offset the adverse impact of El Niño on the monsoon.
This year, however, the IOD is expected to remain only slightly positive and may not provide strong support to the monsoon.
Still, there is absolutely no need to panic. “We may see longer dry spells between good spells of rainfall, and some regions could face rainfall deficiencies. But overall, there are no indications of drought-like conditions,” according to Palawat.
An El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. The expression “Super El Niño” is generally used to describe stronger warming episodes.
According to the IMD, weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning towards ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific with the possibility of development of El Niño conditions later in the June-September season that drives the agrarian and economic health of the country and the general well-being of its people.