Nominations for 37 seats of the Rajya Sabha across 10 states opened on Thursday, with polling scheduled for March 16. The seats include seven in Maharashtra, six in Tamil Nadu, five each in Bihar and West Bengal, four in Odisha, three in Assam, two each in Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Haryana, and one in Himachal Pradesh.
The elections are a part of the routine biennial cycle of the 245-member Upper House, in which 72 members will retire between March and November, this year. Of the total strength, 233 members are elected by state legislators and 12 are nominated by the President.
What makes them politically more significant is the fact that the biennial retirement of one-third of the House is expected to further consolidate the position of the BJP-led NDA, which already holds a majority, and also the saffron party in the run-up to the 2029 elections to the Lok Sabha.
The BJP currently has around 103 members — its highest-ever tally — and, with allies included, the NDA’s strength stands around 130, comfortably above the halfway mark of 122. Any increase in its individual tally will only increase its supremacy within the alliance.
Analysts suggest the alliance could further improve its numbers by year-end.
There is also speculation within the BJP that new party chief Nitin Nabin may be sent to the Upper House, as happened with his predecessor J.P. Nadda. Sources, however, indicate the leadership may opt for his continuity in Bihar Assembly for now, similar to the course adopted by Amit Shah during his term as party president in 2014.
Leveraging strong Assembly majorities secured in recent state elections, the BJP is aiming for a substantial share of 37 seats in this round, however, in states such as Bihar and Maharashtra, seat-sharing negotiations with allies will be crucial. Regional partners are asserting their claims and Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi has already publicly reminded the leadership about an earlier assurance of a Rajya Sabha berth. Maharashtra and Bihar remain central to the NDA’s expansion calculations.
Analysts say that the BJP is entering this phase with a clear advantage in Assam and Odisha and is also favourably placed in Haryana and Chhattisgarh.
The opposition INDIA bloc, meanwhile, has a task ahead, though key constituent parties are expected to retain or consolidate positions in respective strongholds.
In Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the ruling DMK and the TMC are expected to secure most of the seats based on their Assembly strength. The Congress is positioned to retain representation from Telangana and may hold on to seats in states where it shares power or has legislative backing.
With equal legislative powers to the Lower House, except in money matters, and a decisive role in constitutional amendments that require a special majority, the Rajya Sabha remains a key institutional gatekeeper.
For the BJP, strengthening its numbers in the Upper House would help smooth the passage of legislation ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. While trends indicate incremental gains for the BJP-led NDA, the broader political question for the opposition is whether INDIA bloc will maintain cohesion amid differing regional priorities.