After a historic victory in West Bengal, the BJP has now focussed attention on another border state, Punjab, which goes for Assembly elections in 2027. Party sources say the BJP is working on “non-Jat” social engineering to craft a winning formula in life without its former ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).
Historically a junior partner to the Jat Sikh-dominated SAD, the BJP’s decision to strike alone in the next elections has resulted in the making of a complete new strategy. The party is trying to replicate its “Haryana model”, where it successfully consolidated non-Jaat OBCs, Dalits and urban voters to diminish the dominance of Jaats in Haryana’ politics.
By stitching together the coalition of Hindus, Dalits, and non-Jat OBCs — groups that collectively form a significant demographic majority in Punjab — the BJP hopes to dent vote banks of the ruling AAP and the main Opposition Congress in Punjab to emerge as a standalone option in 2027.
Like Haryana, Punjab’s political landscape, too, has been shaped by Jat Sikh dominance through the Akali Dal and the Congress. According to the 2011 Census, Sikhs constitute around 57.69% of the population of the state. Observers say if the 1931 caste percentages are extrapolated to present day Punjab, Jat Sikhs could be around 30% of the population, making them the single largest group across caste and religions in the state.
Jat Sikhs own a huge share of the state’s agricultural land, giving them great economic and political influence. Both the Congress and the Akali Dal have historically relied heavily on Jat Sikh leadership and support. But the slowing down of the Badal-led SAD and its own strained ties with Jat-dominated farmer unions after the farm law protests forced the saffron party to rethink strategy. In any case, the BJP cannot rely on Jat Sikhs who do not seem to be in its favour for various reasons.
The BJP’s relationship with Jat Sikhs deteriorated further after the farm law controversy. According to some observers, for this section, the BJP represents a pro-corporate and urban-centric party. Besides, Punjab also has this unique quality, it is known to vote not to elect but to defeat a particular party.
It is not without a reason, therefore, that Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini has become a frequent visitor to neighbouring Punjab. Observers see this as a part of the BJP’s outreach effort in the Saini community. An OBC leader with cultural and social links in Punjab, especially those bordering Haryana, Saini is a key man in the saffron attempt to mobilise non-Jat OBC voters in the border state.
“It is not as if the BJP is projecting Saini as Punjab Chief Minister, but the Central leadership knows the only way to expand in the key border state is through non-Jat OBCs and marginalised castes. The dominant Jat Sikh community is unlikely to support the BJP,” says a leader familiar with Punjab strategy.
Therefore, the BJP is focusing on communities such as Sainis and Gujjars, and scheduled castes like Balmikis and Mazhabi Sikhs. Dalits constitute nearly 32% of Punjab’s population — the highest perhaps in all states — which the BJP is courting through multiple symbolic and political outreach measures.
Urban Hindus, meanwhile, remain the party’s strongest support base and the party is trying to consolidate this bloc using cross-border issues related to national security and law and order. The BJP has also opened its doors to influential non-Jat leaders from the Congress and the AAP. By inducting regional figures with influence among specific caste groups, the party hopes to smoothen the remaining wrinkles in the 65-70 percent non-Jat black in Punjab.