With the Election Commission announcing the byelection in the Nilambur constituency on June 19 the political fronts – the CPI-M-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) are busy holding consultations to decide on their respective candidates.
The Nilambur assembly constituency in the Malappuram district of Kerala will witness a tough fight between the CP-M-led LDF and the Congress-led UDF. While the BJP does not have a significant presence in the constituency, in the changed circumstance, the party is expecting to demonstrate a good show.
The by-election can be seen as the semi -final before the local body polls due in November 2024 and the assembly elections to be held in April 2026. The bypoll is a significant ballot box battle for the fronts ahead of the 2025 local body polls and the assembly elections in 2026 and will be an indicator of Kerala’s voting behaviour in the crucial run-up to the consequential elections.
The by-election in Nilambur was necessitated by the resignation of sitting MLA PV. Anvar, who had won the seat in the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections as a CPI-M-backed Independent candidate. Following a series of serious allegations he raised against senior police officers, M R Ajithkumar and Sujith Das, as well as P Sasi, the chief minister’s political secretary, Anvar’s relationship with the CPI-M and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan soured. Anvar snapped ties with the LDF over government’s alleged inaction on his complaints against additional director general of police (law and order) MR Ajith Kumar and the chief minister’s political secretary P Sasi. The CPI-M has also severed its links with Anvar over his (Anvar’s) ‘vilification campaign’ against party and Kerala government . Following this, Anvar resigned as MLA from Nilambur constituency.
The CPI-M is yet to recover from Anvar’s exit from the LDF and his resignation as an MLA. The Nilambur bypoll result will be crucuial for PV Anvar, the CPI-M and the Congress. It will determine his political future. If the LDF candidate is defeated in the bypoll, he can claim that it was because of his support base that he won the seat as an LDF candidate in 2021. On the other hand, if the LDF retains the seat,it will be difficult to predict Anvar’s political future.
The Nilambur by-election results will answer the question whether there will be a continuation of the government or a change of government in the state. The bypoll will give the Opposition Congress-led UDF an opportunity to give a fight when the CPI-M is preparing the political field for the third Pinarayi government. In the last lap of the state government, the CPI-M is raising the tag line ‘Pinarayi again’. For the UDF, this by-election is a political opportunity to overcome LDF’s campaigns and bring the LDF government under public trial.
The CPI-M state secretary MV Govindan says the LDF will achieve a big victory in the Nilambur by-election. The party is starting the fight by comparing PV Anwar, who left the party, to Judas.
Opposition leader VD Satheesan said the UDF is ready to face the Nilambur by-election. He claimed that the UDF would win a landslide victory in Nilambur. “I am confident that the UDF candidate will win the Nilambur seat comfortably,” he said.
Meanwhile, There are two opinions in the BJP on whether to contest the by-election or not. The party assesses that the Nilambur by-election was an imposed election.