A misplaced euphoria and excitement is there about the ‘historic voter turnout’ of 85.14 in the April 23 polling for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections which masks the ground reality of the voter cake shrinking, pushing the percentage higher with no remarkable jump in the actual votes cast.
Since the state has never recorded 80 per cent turnout in either Assembly or Lok Sabha elections, from drawing rooms to street corner tea shops, the public discourse is about decoding this myth. The present figure cannot be seen in isolation so as to conclude that this is the result of a desire for change. Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) president and actor Vijay was quick to predict that this ‘unprecedented overwhelming massive and historic turnout’ was an indication of the winds of change’. In a post on ‘X’ he thanked the children for ensuring that their parents and relatives exercised their franchise in large numbers.
The reasons attributed for this hike range from the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, which has shrunk the electoral cake by purging over 68 lakh voters. Post SIR, the total electorate of Tamil Nadu was 6.41 crore, which has come down to 5,73 crore. The second one is the Vijay factor, said to have galvanised the youth and first-time voters as well as women to participate in the democratic process.
While the sharp jump is statistically true, the figure also conceals the fact that there is only a marginal increase in actual polling. In 2021, the poll percentage was 73.63 per cent with the previous high turnout of 78.01 per cent in 2011. In this Assembly election, the figures present a sober picture: the total number of people who voted had gone up by 24 lakh – from 4.63 crore in 2021 to roughly 4.87 crore in 2026. It was 4.39 crore in the 2024 LS polls. Comparison of any assembly constituency with previous voting figures would establish this.
Dismissing the ‘historic turnout’ as a jugglery in numbers devoid of any significance indicating a desire for change among the electorate, DMK spokesperson TKS Elangovan asked this to be viewed in context. “There is no significant jump or difference in the total votes polled. There is only a moderate increase of about 24 lakh in 234 constituencies. It is none too significant and assessing in absolute terms as higher turnout would be misplaced as a huge jump in voter participation,” he explained.
On the Vijay factor, analysts are divided and those discounting it cite the West Bengal voter turnout and ask whether Vijay had any impact in that. Voter enthusiasm post SIR cannot be ignored, it is pointed out.