The southwest monsoon’s progress across Maharashtra has hit a pause, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) saying prevailing atmospheric conditions are not currently favourable for its further advance across the state.
The weather department said most parts of Maharashtra are likely to witness only isolated rainfall over the next four to five days as the monsoon circulation remains weak and key weather systems associated with seasonal rainfall are absent.
According to the IMD, the monsoon had advanced into parts of South Konkan and adjoining regions of South Madhya Maharashtra on June 8. Since then, its movement across the remaining areas of the state has remained largely unchanged.
Weak moisture inflow affecting monsoon progress
The department said the monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea lacks the strong surge that typically brings substantial moisture inland and supports widespread rainfall.
It noted that low-level southwesterly winds over the Arabian Sea have weakened in recent days. This has reduced the transport of moisture towards Maharashtra’s coastal belt as well as interior districts.
The IMD also pointed to a decline in cross-equatorial flow over the western Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. These winds serve as a major source of moisture for the southwest monsoon, and their weakening has contributed to reduced monsoon activity.
No major weather systems in place
The weather office said there are currently no significant monsoon-supporting systems such as low-pressure areas, cyclonic circulations over the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal, or a sufficiently active offshore trough along the west coast.
It further said that large-scale circulation features, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are not showing strong indications that would favour rapid monsoon advancement over the remaining parts of Maharashtra at present.
While rainfall activity is expected to remain limited in the immediate future, numerical weather models indicate that precipitation could increase over the Konkan region around June 24 and 25.
The IMD said it is closely monitoring evolving synoptic conditions for any changes that may help the southwest monsoon resume its advance across the state.