Official data from Kerala’s Department of Economics and Statistics reveals that the Hindu and Christian communities have entered a negative Natural Growth Rate (NGR), meaning annual deaths now outnumber annual live births within these groups.
According to a decadal analysis of the state’s Vital Statistics Reports, the state’s overall population growth continues to remain positive solely due to the Muslim community, whose births still exceed deaths. However, demographic experts note that birth rates across all communities in Kerala are steadily declining.
A negative natural growth rate means a community’s death rate exceeds its birth rate, causing the population to shrink from natural changes alone. For Hindus, it was the second consecutive year in negative territory, and for Christians, the third. Hindu NGR, which turned negative for the first time in 2022 (-0.080%) worsened further to -0.115% in 2023, while Christians have been in negative territory since 2021 (-0.095%), reaching -0.084% in 2023.
While the individual trajectories of Hindus and Christians are shrinking, Kerala’s overall natural growth rate was marginally positive at 0.249% in 2023 due to the Muslim community Demographic models indicate that the Muslim population’s growth rate is also sharply decelerating.
Experts project that the entire state of Kerala will transition to a completely negative natural population growth rate within the next two decades, around 2041.
Sociologists attribute this rapid demographic transition to high literacy rates, increased female labor force participation, late marriages, higher out-migration among young adults, and an overall preference for smaller families across the state.