Looks like the Congress has finally made up its mind on Karnataka. After months of backroom discussions and public sparring between rival camps, Deputy Chief Minister and Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president DK Shivakumar is now set to take over from Siddaramaiah as Chief Minister.
The expected transition comes after months of intense internal friction between the camps led by Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, a tussle that had increasingly begun spilling into the public domain and raising concerns within the party leadership ahead of the 2028 Assembly elections.
News agency IANS mentioned sources as saying that Siddaramaiah could submit his resignation to the Governor after a breakfast meeting scheduled on Thursday morning. He is also expected to address the media around the same time.
Even before any formal announcement, celebrations reportedly broke out at Shivakumar’s residence in Bengaluru, with supporters bursting crackers and loyalist MLAs openly claiming that the KPCC chief was set to take charge as the next Chief Minister.
The Congress leadership had been treading cautiously because the move involves replacing Siddaramaiah, one of the party’s tallest mass leaders in Karnataka and the face of the influential AHINDA social coalition comprising minorities, backward classes and Dalits.
In recent weeks, several senior ministers, including Home Minister G Parameshwara, PWD Minister Satish Jarkiholi and Food Minister KH Muniyappa, publicly maintained that they would abide by whatever decision the Congress high command took regarding the leadership question.
Muniyappa, a former Union Minister and seven-time Lok Sabha MP, also clarified that he would not insist on a Dalit Chief Minister if the party leadership decided on a transition.
According to party insiders, the Congress high command was particularly focused on ensuring that the AHINDA vote base remained intact during the transition process.
Rahul Gandhi said to have pushed for smooth transition
Sources within the party claimed Siddaramaiah had travelled to Delhi with proposals related to a Cabinet reshuffle and the appointment of a new Karnataka Congress president in Shivakumar’s place.
However, during discussions in Delhi, Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi is learnt to have asked Siddaramaiah to ensure a smooth transfer of power without prolonging negotiations.
Senior Congress leaders Randeep Singh Surjewala and KC Venugopal are also believed to have played a key role in persuading Siddaramaiah, reminding him that Rahul Gandhi had earlier backed him for two terms as Chief Minister.
Congress insiders further said the leadership carefully managed optics by ensuring Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar appeared together after meetings at Indira Bhavan in Delhi, projecting unity at a sensitive moment for the party.
Senior Congress leader RV Deshpande’s remark that Siddaramaiah had already decided to honour the party leadership’s commitment added further momentum to the speculation around the change in guard.
Congress eyes 2028 polls with social balancing strategy
Party insiders said the leadership transition is being viewed as part of a broader political strategy for the 2028 Karnataka Assembly elections.
The Congress leadership is also believed to be considering a wider social representation formula by appointing Deputy Chief Ministers from Lingayat, AHINDA and minority communities.
Sources within the party said concerns over Siddaramaiah’s age and his ability to manage grassroots organisational work across Karnataka played a role in the leadership discussions, even though he continues to be regarded as one of the party’s strongest mass leaders and campaigners.
The Congress is also said to be worried about the BJP-JD(S) alliance consolidating Lingayat and Vokkaliga voters ahead of the next election cycle.
By projecting Shivakumar as the new face of the government, the party hopes to blunt anti-incumbency, retain its AHINDA support base and improve its reach among Vokkaliga voters.
Political observers, however, believe the stability of the government after the transition will depend largely on how Siddaramaiah and his supporters respond in the coming weeks. Even as the Congress moves closer to a transition, many within the party privately fear that the rivalry between the Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar camps may not end overnight.
The BJP, meanwhile, has mocked the Congress over the prolonged power struggle and claimed the political uncertainty could even push Karnataka towards early Assembly elections.