India and the United States have wrapped up negotiations on a long-awaited trade deal. But a key issue remains unclear – India’s purchase of Russian oil.
The matter gained prominence after US President Donald Trump announced the deal publicly. In his statement, Trump linked the agreement to India stopping imports of Russian oil. He also indicated that India would instead buy more oil from the United States, and possibly Venezuela.
So far, the Indian government has not confirmed any such commitment. Officials say the final details of the agreement are still being worked out. A joint statement from both sides is awaited.
What Trump said, and what India has not yet confirmed
In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, President Trump described his conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and outlined what he said was agreed.
“It was an Honor to speak with Prime Minister Modi, of India, this morning. He is one of my greatest friends and, a Powerful and Respected Leader of his Country. We spoke about many things, including Trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela. This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week!”
Despite this assertion, New Delhi has not echoed the claim. There has been no official confirmation that India will fully halt Russian oil imports. Government sources have indicated that the final terms are still under discussion.
Experts see room for differing interpretations
Foreign policy experts suggest that the two sides may not be aligned on the exact scope of India’s commitment.
Lisa Curtis, Director at the Centre for New American Security, said it was possible that Washington and New Delhi were operating with different expectations.
“India clearly is decreasing its level of imports of Russian oil. However, I think we noticed that Prime Minister Modi did not repeat the pledge that President Trump made that India would completely halt Russian oil imports… If President Trump is expecting India to cut off the Russian oil imports completely by a certain time and India maybe has a different understanding of what was committed to… Prime Minister Modi does not want to be seen as caving into US demands regarding its relationship with Russia, which considers a strong historical partner. But he also recognises how important this is to President Trump, who has been very consistent on wanting to see India reduce and eventually halt its Russian oil imports.”
Curtis welcomed the broader trade agreement, calling it a significant step forward for bilateral ties. She noted that several factors may have pushed the deal to the finish line.
“The announcement of the conclusion of the trade deal was very welcome and will provide a major boost to US-India relations… There have been disagreements between the US and India, for example, on the aftermath of the India-Pakistan conflict… In terms of what led to this announcement – it could be many things such as Ambassador Sergio Gor arriving in New Delhi on January 9th, making positive statements over the last several weeks… The second was that India’s imports of Russian oil had been going down, particularly in December, which President Trump noticed. The third point would be the fact that India concluded a free trade agreement with the EU just last week, which shows that India has some options on the table for its goods, which could have prompted the US to want to speed up its own trade agreement with India.”
Government says details will follow
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the agreement was in its final stages and that full details would be shared once technical processes were complete.
“Indians are celebrating a trade deal which is under the final stages of detailing between the negotiating teams of both countries. We will shortly be issuing a joint statement by both countries along with the details, which we will be shortly inking between the United States of America and India. As soon as the final understanding of the deal is inked and the joint statement is finalised, technical processes are completed, full details will be shared.”
Goyal added that the agreement would protect Indian interests and open up new economic opportunities.
For now, the central question remains unanswered: whether India will fully stop buying Russian oil, or whether the understanding is more limited.