In Assam’s political landscape, rhetoric on migration and polarisation has always been a part of BJP’s strategy to consolidate votes—a playbook well understood by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Recently, Sarma escalated this approach by referring to Bengali-speaking Muslims, particularly those of Bangladeshi origin, as “Miya Muslims,” suggesting they be driven out of the state.
His comments sparked widespread controversy in the poll-bound state.
On Friday, Union Home Minister Amit Shah also weighed in, claiming that Assam’s demography changed drastically under Congress rule, with the population of “infiltrators” rising to 64 lakh from zero. “The population of infiltrators rose to 64 lakh from nil, and infiltrators became a majority in seven districts,” he said, addressing a rally in a poll-bound state. And while seeking support for Sarma, he was quoted as saying, “If you want to stop infiltration in Assam, then elect the BJP govt for a third term and strengthen the hands of CM Himanta Biswa Sarma. Two BJP state governments in Assam have freed 1.26 lakh acres of land from encroachment by infiltrators.”
Whether this strategy will translate into electoral gains in 2026 remains to be seen. As an incumbent, Sarma now faces voter scrutiny on governance issues such as jobs, inflation, infrastructure and flood management, and his remarks may have provided opposition parties with ammunition, potentially influencing swing voters, including Bengali-speaking populations in neighbouring West Bengal.
Opposition leaders have condemned Sarma and demanded an apology. Sarma, however, denied any intent to insult or stigmatise anyone, saying that the term he used was not coined by him but was also used widely within the community. He defended his remarks as part of a broader discussion on illegal migration and its impact on Assam’s resources, culture, and demographic balance, rather than as an attack on any religion or community.
Observers say such statements may strengthen Sarma’s core electoral support as issues like illegal migration, demographic change and indigenous identity also resonate strongly with many Assamese voters. By taking a hardline stance and using blunt language, Sarma may also be able to reinforce his image as a leader who speaks “without fear” and prioritises state interests.
But the strategy to focus discourse on identity and migration, areas where Sarma and the BJP feel electorally stronger, also comes with risks. It risks alienating Muslim, Bengali-speaking, moderate, and urban voters, and may also affect sentiments in neighbouring West Bengal and give opposition parties reasons to portray Sarma as divisive.
Besides, repeated polarising statements, especially in a state ruled by the BJP, could be a turn-off for voters, as bread-and-butter issues like employment, healthcare, and education are important. Ultimately, the electoral outcomes will depend on whether the opposition can counter the BJP’s narrative.