The six rebel Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs, who defied the party whip by skipping a crucial parliamentary party meeting last week, ended all speculation about their future on Monday by announcing their split from the Uddhav Thackeray-led party.
While a group of breakaway Trinamool Congress (TMC) MPs had earlier chosen to join the little-known NCPI, a party with no representation in any state Assembly, let alone Parliament, the Shiv Sena (UBT) rebels opted to join the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena.
What stood out in both cases, however, was that neither faction joined the BJP despite the saffron party’s perceived influence over the developments.
Observers say several factors explain this strategy, foremost among them the need to navigate the provisions of the Anti-Defection Law.
Under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution, legislators can be disqualified for defection. However, if at least two-thirds of a legislature party breaks away, its members may claim protection through a legal merger without losing their seats. In both cases, the rebel MPs chose to align with other political entities rather than join the BJP directly, despite having the requisite two-thirds strength.
Experts point out that directly joining the BJP would require not only a two-thirds split in the legislature party but also a merger of the parent political organisation.
“The Anti-Defection Law does not provide that securing a two-thirds majority in Parliament automatically allows legislators to join any party. Two cumulative conditions must be met: the original political party organisation must decide to merge with another party, and at least two-thirds of the elected MPs or MLAs must support that merger,” they explain.
Since the official party leadership continues to control the organisational structure, the rebel MPs risked immediate disqualification if they joined the BJP outright. Aligning with other parties enabled them to support the BJP-led NDA without violating the Anti-Defection Law.
Political optics also played a significant role.
Following turbulence within the TMC and later the Shiv Sena (UBT), the BJP sought to avoid the perception that it was engineering defections. During what came to be known as the Shinde Sena’s “Operation Tiger,” BJP leaders maintained that those leaving opposition parties were doing so voluntarily because of internal dissatisfaction.
“The BJP practises politics based on development, good governance and nationalism. Breaking other parties is not our agenda. If any leader or faction is unhappy with their party and wants to join us, that is their own choice,” BJP leaders claimed.
Electoral considerations were another factor.
A direct merger with the BJP could have alienated grassroots workers and voters who had elected these MPs under regional party banners. By joining regional entities aligned with the NDA, the rebels retained their local political identity while securing the backing of the ruling coalition at the Centre.
“Parties such as the NCPI or Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena allow MPs to support the NDA without adopting the BJP’s state-level branding and risking erosion of their voter base,” observers say.
Past experience also appears to have influenced the strategy.
During the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections, the BJP inducted a large number of TMC defectors. The strategy ultimately backfired, as many voters viewed the saffron party as a refuge for political turncoats rather than a credible alternative to the ruling dispensation, observers note.