Coming ahead of the Punjab Assembly elections early next year, the political apocalypse in the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP on Thursday poses a major challenge to the ruling party in the state, giving rise to questions on its political beneficiary. Will these seven Rajya Sabha MPs—the majority being from Punjab—help the BJP, a relatively minor force in the state? Will this defection help the Congress, the primary challenger of AAP? Will it benefit the Akali Dal, an important force in the state? Or will Arvind Kejriwal gain sympathy from voters due to this “betrayal by traitors,” as AAP leaders are describing it?
Notably, six of the seven MPs who joined the BJP on Thursday are from Punjab, with Swati Maliwal being the only one from Delhi. Addressing media persons on Friday, AAP MP Sanjay Singh accused the BJP leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, of orchestrating “Operation Lotus” to destabilise the Mann government.
Sources say the development opens opportunities for the BJP in a state where the party has traditionally struggled to establish a strong foothold independently. By inducting leaders with established local networks—someone like Raghav Chadha, who was seen as a de facto CM in the Bhagwant Mann government in Punjab before things went awry—it is a smart, calculated expansion strategy ahead of the polls.
For AAP, which swept to power in Punjab, the defections create a perception of internal instability at a critical juncture. Such optics could erode voter confidence, particularly if the opposition successfully frames the narrative as one of leadership issues. But can it gain from a sympathy factor in Punjab’s distinct political dynamics, shaped by regional identity, agrarian concerns, and lingering distrust following the farm law protests?
Observers say that while the BJP strengthens its organisational presence and uses the networks of the new inductees, converting that into votes is a complex task. Besides, people in Punjab are seen as voting to defeat a party rather than making a party win. This is where the Congress could emerge as a key beneficiary.
Despite recent electoral setbacks, the party retains a legacy base across rural and semi-urban Punjab. Any erosion in AAP’s support may benefit Congress, especially among voters reluctant to back the BJP. If the party manages internal cohesion and presents a credible leadership face, it could reclaim lost ground, sources say. The evolving scenario also leaves room for the Shiromani Akali Dal to regain relevance by appealing to sections disillusioned with both AAP and Congress. And if the BJP and the Akali Dal come together, the scenario may be completely different.
So, can the fragmentation of AAP have multiple effects?
AAP leaders have reacted sharply, calling the move a “gaddari” (betrayal) that the people of Punjab who sent them to the Rajya Sabha will never forget. In a post on X, Kejriwal said, “BJP ne phir kiya Punjabiyon ke saath dhakka.” “People of Punjab will never forgive this betrayal,” Mann said on Friday, describing the seven MPs as “traitors” who would gain nothing in the BJP. Whether voters in Punjab will also buy this argument remains to be seen.