Speculation is rife in the national capital that West Bengal could soon witness a political upheaval similar to the Maharashtra model? There are indications that the Trinamool Congress (TMC) might face an internal divide the way Shiv Sena underwent a split in 2022.
This possibility became more pronounced on Monday when the TMC expelled two of its legislators, Ritabrata Banerjee and Sandipan Saha. Conversations have taken place between Ritabrata, who defected the Left to join the Trinamool, and new Chief Minister of Bengal Suvendu Adhikari at Banga Bhavan here.
A controversy arose after Ritabrata and Sandipan claimed in a letter to the Speaker that their signatures on a document related to the election of the opposition leader were forged. Adhikari publicly addressing the issue led to the expulsion of the two legislators, a decision that has been officially communicated to the Speaker by the TMC.
A source said that Ritabrata and Sandipan have with them the support of more 52 MLAs. After their expulsion, both the leaders will be regarded as unattached legislators in the Assembly. Although they remain MLAs, they will no longer be considered Trinamool Congress legislators in the Assembly.
Days before, as many as 60 MLAs were absent in a meeting called by the Trinamool Congress in Kalighat. This forced party chief Mamata Banerjee to cancel the meeting. Consequently, questions are being raised within the party about the extent of loyalty the leadership enjoys among party legislators.
According to sources, several Trinamool MLAs are already in touch with Ritabrata and Sandipan Saha. The focus on these two dissenting legislators has sparked speculation about a significant rift in the Trinamool Congress.
Political circles in the national capital, monitoring the developments, are anticipating the possibility of “Maharashtra model” gaining traction. Following the expulsion of these two MLAs, the official strength of Trinamool legislative contingent now stands at 78. If the number of rebel MLAs rallying around Ritabrata and Sandipan continues to grow, it could pose a serious challenge for Mamata Banerjee, potentially endangering the party’s symbol itself.
If Ritabrata and Sandeepan manage to secure the support of more than two-thirds of Trinamool MLAs, that means at least 53 legislators, they will not fall under the purview of the anti-defection law. In such a scenario, they could even approach the Election Commission of India (ECI) to claim the Trinamool’s “ghasful” symbol, similar to what happened with the Shiv Sena and NCP in Maharashtra.
Ritabrata Bandopadhyay has not completely ruled out this possibility. In a rather suggestive comment, the MLA from Uluberia East stated, “I cannot predict what will happen tomorrow, nor can I guarantee that I’ll survive tomorrow. However, I have faith that the people will ensure survival.”
In the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections, the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance secured a majority of seats. The BJP won 105 seats while the Shiv Sena emerged victorious in 56 constituencies. However, this marked the beginning of a conflict between the two parties.
Despite securing fewer seats, Shiv Sena demanded that someone from their party take on the role of chief minister, a proposition the BJP was unwilling to accept. As a result, Shiv Sena withdrew its support to the BJP. Subsequently, the saffron party attempted to form a government by creating a faction within Sharad Pawar’s NCP.
Ajit Pawar, nephew of Sharad Pawar, extended support to the BJP, along with a majority of NCP lawmakers. Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP became the Chief Minister, while Ajit Pawar assumed the role of Deputy Chief Minister. In response, Sharad Pawar initiated talks with the Congress and Shiv Sena and formed the Mahavikas Aghadi alliance. Realizing that the government wouldn’t last, Devendra Fadnavis eventually resigned. Following this, the NCP-Congress-Shiv Sena coalition established a new government in Maharashtra, with Uddhav Thackeray sworn in as the chief minister.
In 2022, Maharashtra once again witnessed political turmoil involving a split within the Shiv Sena after the earlier fractures in the NCP. Eknath Shinde suddenly moved to a hotel in Guwahati with 40 MLAs and extended support to the BJP. Backed by these pro-Shinde Shiv Sena legislators, the BJP formed a government in Maharashtra.
Moreover, Shinde staked a claim on the original Shiv Sena party symbol before the Election Commission. With the support of over two-thirds of the Shiv Sena MLAs, the commission eventually approved his claim, granting him the traditional bow-and-arrow emblem of the party.
Similarly, Sharad Pawar lost his party symbol while Uddhav Thackeray had to settle for the torch symbol. Now, there is growing speculation about whether a similar scenario, inspired by the Maharashtra model, could unfold in Bengal. All eyes are on the political stage to see how the situation develops.