When the 2026 Golden Globes nominations were announced on Monday, December 8, movie fans did a double take. Among the contenders for the cinematic and box office achievement award sat a title that hasn’t even hit theaters yet: ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’. Yes, you read that right, an unreleased movie is already in the running for a category that celebrates big box office hits.
The big names in the running
Alongside James Cameron’s sci-fi spectacle, other films nominated for the award include ‘F1: The Movie’, ‘KPop Demon Hunters’, ‘Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning’, ‘Sinners’, ‘Weapons’, ‘Wicked: For Good’, and ‘Zootopia 2’.
Fans were puzzled to see ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ on the list, considering its US and India release date isn’t until December 19.
How can a film with zero ticket sales be considered for box office glory?
The ‘projected success’ rule
It turns out the Golden Globes have a rule that allows this. Films released after November 22 can qualify for the box office achievement award if they’re projected to perform well, either in theaters or on streaming platforms.
In short, the voters are betting on the movie’s future earnings, not its past numbers.
And with ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’, the gamble seems safe. The original ‘Avatar’ (2009) is still the highest-grossing film of all time raking in $2.9 billion. ‘Avatar: The Way of Water’ (2022) pulled in $2.3 billion. Based on these figures, it’s reasonable to assume the new sequel could easily meet the Golden Globes’ threshold: $150 million worldwide including $100 million in North America or a similar performance in digital streaming.
A relatively new award
The cinematic and box office achievement category is still a newcomer at the Golden Globes. Introduced in 2024, it was created to shine a light on blockbuster films during awards season; movies that are popular with audiences but often overlooked by traditional award categories. ‘Barbie’ was the first winner followed by the original ‘Wicked’ in 2025.
According to the Golden Globes, the award “recognises the year’s most acclaimed, highest-earning and/or most viewed films. They must have garnered extensive global audience support and attained cinematic excellence, as determined by Golden Globes voters.”
Essentially, it rewards films that connect with audiences around the world while also achieving artistic merit.
Snubs and surprises
Interestingly, ‘Fire and Ash’ scored a box office nod. But it was left out of the best film drama category, a spot the first ‘Avatar’ claimed in 2010. Similarly ‘The Way of Water’ had previously been nominated for best drama, but the new sequel was not. Meanwhile, ‘Wicked: For Good’ didn’t land a best comedy/musical nomination, even though the first ‘Wicked’ had.
These decisions have sparked conversations about what the Golden Globes value. Box office numbers, audience appeal, critical acclaim, or a mix of all three.