SBI Research has projected that India’s real GDP growth for the third quarter of FY26 could exceed 8%, with its nowcasting model estimating growth in the range of 8.0–8.1% year-on-year.
According to the report, high-frequency indicators point to resilient economic activity during Q3 FY26.
The report highlights robust rural consumption, supported by positive trends in both farm and non-farm sectors, along with a sustained recovery in urban consumption following the festive season.
Despite global headwinds, the Indian economy has maintained strong growth momentum.
As per the First Advance Estimates, GDP is projected to grow at 7.4% in FY26, with expansion largely driven by domestic demand. The latest Economic Survey estimates India’s potential GDP at around 7% and projects growth in the range of 6.8–7.2% in FY27.
The Second Advance Estimates of GDP for FY26, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026.
Accordingly, the previous quarterly figures for Q1 and Q2 are expected to undergo revisions in line with the change in base year to 2022–23.
The research team cautioned that the upcoming GDP revisions, aligned with the new base year of 2022–23, could significantly alter earlier quarterly estimates.
“Given the significant methodological changes and the introduction of new data series, it is difficult to predict the direction of the revisions,” the report said.
On the global front, the report flagged heightened uncertainty, citing uneven growth trends and recent tariff-related developments in the United States.
Separately, SBI Research noted a broad-based improvement across leading indicators. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) showed stronger momentum, with 87% of the tracked indicators registering acceleration in Q3 FY26, compared with 80% in Q2.
The findings are based on SBI Research’s Dynamic Factor Model, which uses a panel of high-frequency economic indicators to estimate near-term GDP trends.