Mumbai, 11 September
Credit ratings agency Crisil today cut India’s economic growth estimate to 4.8 per cent for the current fiscal, and said agriculture is the only hope for higher rate of expansion in this period of downturn. Its earlier GDP estimate for financial year 2013-14 was 5.5 per cent.
The agency also warned the government of overshooting the fiscal deficit target of 4.8 per cent due to poor revenue growth and pegged it at 5.2 per cent for this fiscal.
“GDP growth for FY’14 will come at a decade’s low of 4.8 per cent because of the host of issues which we are facing at present,” Crisil managing director and chief executive Roopa Kudva told reporters here.
“I think we are at the bottom, but a rapid recovery from here is unlikely. It will be an L-shaped recovery from here on,” she added.
Ms Kudva, however, said that agriculture, on the back of good monsoons, holds the potential to push the overall GDP growth number to up to 5.2 per cent.
“We are expecting agriculture to grow by 4.5 per cent this fiscal, which is double that of last year. However, if this number goes up to six per cent, the overall GDP growth will get pushed to 5.2 per cent,” Ms Kudva said.