The alliance remains intact, at least nominally. Mehbooba Mufti returned to Srinagar virtually empty-handed. After creating an impression that during her visit to the Capital she would be pressing the Centre to opt for a negotiated way out of the violence that has devastated life in the Valley, she was clearly unable to exert enough pressure on the Modi government to alter course and accept the line advocated by Kashmiri political forces that the current stress on a “military” solution had little chance of success. That the chief minister was left struggling to find “something” to prove her trip was not fruitless was evident when she made much of the Prime Minister having “an intention of holding talks after the situation becomes normal”, but she simultaneously echoed the New Delhi-line that “an atmosphere needs to be created…. Talks cannot happen amid stone-pelting and firing of bullets”. She has actually put herself on the spot ~ the onus is now on her government (albeit in conjunction with the security forces over which she has only token control) to contain and reverse a situation which she already has proved too inept to tackle. Her alliance partner, the BJP, is doing little to assist, the comments from some of its ministers have exacerbated the stand-off. And if the BJP/RSS “point-man” Ram Madhav thought he was being articulate when using the term “all is fair in love and war” (when defending the Army’s use of a human-shield), he actually fuelled the impression that the government was at war with the folk of the Valley.

All that raises the critical pre-negotiations question: what is “normal”? Militancy has engulfed the Valley for over 29 years, and the cycle of violence has had highs and lows but has never been eradicated. Sure there have been “good” tourist seasons (a key index to the conditions that prevail), but some disastrous ones too. It could be argued that if a delegation of MPs (shepherded by the home minister) could visit Srinagar, and a “team” that included former cabinet minister Yashwant Sinha could move around the Valley even after the Burhan Wani fiasco, what prevents the launch of negotiations? They could also be conducted elsewhere. The counter-point would be the farcical byelection to the Lok Sabha from Srinagar, the deferment of the poll in Anantnag. The truth being that “normality” and a “conducive atmosphere” point to a state of mind rather than physical conditions The other relevant query is who comprise the “stake-holders” ~ Mehbooba would like them to include Hurriyat leaders, the Central government is silent on that. The really pertinent query is why New Delhi is hesitant about imposing Governor’s Rule when the administrative machinery has crumbled: is Mehbooba merely serving as a convenient “buffer”?