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Trump in South Asia

Donald Trump’s foreign policy statement, riveted as it is to Afghanistan, intrinsically marks no break with the Bush/Obama years. And…

Trump in South Asia

Donald Trump (Photo: AFP)

Donald Trump’s foreign policy statement, riveted as it is to Afghanistan, intrinsically marks no break with the Bush/Obama years. And yet, far from scaling down the presence of US troops, he intends to intensify the footprint of the military. Could this be the White House response to the renewed Taliban offensive? The immediate response of the militants that “Afghanistan will become a graveyard” portends still more fearsome prospects in a fractured land. Considering that militants have stepped up their activity following the pullout of NATO forces in 2014, the US President is painfully aware that a “rapid exit would leave a vacuum that the ISIS and Al Qaida would instantly fill”. Left to its own devices, successive dispensations of Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani have failed to contain Islamist fundamentalism. The other critical facet of Monday’s announcement is his robust warning to Pakistan for providing safe havens to terrorists; factually, the maverick Head of State cannot be countered. This is the sternest warning yet by an American President to Pakistan, and small wonder it has caused a flutter in the roost across the Radcliffe Line.

The other critical facet is that the US President has sought an enhanced role for India to ensure peace and stability in the troubled country ~ “We want India to help us more with Afghanistan,” was his mildly flattering message to Delhi, the obverse being reserved for Pakistan. Both the civilian government in Islamabad and the Rawalpindi GHQ have been bluntly told that “Pakistan has much to lose by continuing to harbour terrorists”. Thus far, Delhi has been wary of an overt response to developments in Afghanistan, though the Indian embassy in Kabul has been a target of Taliban fury. On Tuesday, however, the MEA did swiftly welcome the US President’s remarks calling for a “crackdown of terror safe havens”.

Ergo, Mr Trump’s foreign policy presentation is profoundly critical for subcontinental geopolitics. “American troops will fight to win America’s 16-year war,” is central to the President’s paradigm shift on Afghanistan and South Asia in the wider canvas. While enunciating his policy towards Afghanistan, he has addressed his overtures to India, clothed with a dire warning to Pakistan. And this threepronged strategy signals the contours of US dealings with South Asia.

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The open warning to Pakistan has been matched with a deepening of the US “partnership with India”. This was arguably Mr Trump’s most realistic foreign policy statement thus far ~ a carefully scripted assessment of the complex reality in Afghanistan. The US President has spelt out how India can help and what Pakistan ought not to do. He has inherited a 16-year mess, and his refashioned policy could translate to more of the same. It is a rocky road ahead and a foreign policy presentation cannot bring a tormented country any closer to peace though it does envisage a dramatic change in strategy.

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