Last Tuesday, Tamil Nadu observed the first death anniversary of its beloved leader J. Jayalalihtaa. Unfortunately what should have been a solemn occasion turned out to be one for bickering between various AIADMK factions which have sprung up after her death. This was because Jayalalithaa did not indicate who should be her successor. The fact is that Jaya’s samadhi on Marina beach became a place of clashes between the ruling AIADMK faction led by E. Palaniswamy and his deputy O. Pannerselvam versus the Sasikala-Dinakaran faction, both claiming the political legacy of the departed leader.

In politics it is often said that one week is too long but in the case of AIADMK one year has seen dramatic twists and turns within the party. First of all, the myth of Sasikala who had remained the shadow of Jaya for more than three decades has been exposed. Secondly, Sasikala had not been able to hold the party after Jaya as it has split three ways. After she put together a government headed by O. Pannerselvam, the unity did not last even weeks as Sasikala got herself elected as the party’s all powerful general secretary and was also on the way to becoming the chief minister. Her ambitions came to an abrupt end with her conviction in a corruption case but by then the AIADMK had split with Pannerselvam revolting against Sasikala.

Pannerselvam’s volte-face was the most interesting aspect of the drama that followed Jaya’s death. Sasikala kept MLAs captive in a resort and got her puppet chief minister E. Palaniswamy installed. Thirdly, her efforts to control the party by appointing her nephew TTV Dinakaran as the party deputy general secretary did not succeed as the OPS-EPS factions came together to become the united AIADMK and threw out both Sasikala and her nephew. Fourthly, the apex court had sentenced her to a four-year jail term, which she is presently serving in a Bengaluru jail, on a disproportionate assets case.

Fifthly and more importantly, the Election Commission recognised the united AIADMK as the real party last month and even allotted the frozen ‘two leaves’ symbol to it, dealing a great blow to the Sasikala faction. Sixthly, Dinakaran, who contested as the candidate of the Sasikala faction in the April 12 R.K. Nagar bye-poll for the seat which fell vacant after Jaya’s death, got discredited after the Election Commission rescinded the poll. This followed complaints about the Dinakaran-Sasikala camp spending huge amounts of money to bribe
voters.

With the united AIADMK ousting both, Dinkaran has lost the party support and is now left with just 18 MLAs while the ruling combine has about a hundred legislators. Though Dinakaran is contesting the R.K. Nagar bye-poll, now scheduled for 21 December, as an independent candidate, he is totally discredited. Lastly, the BJP at the Centre has almost finished the Sasikala faction with frequent raids on their premises. What should have been a cakewalk for the AIADMK, which had held the R.K.Nagar seat from 2001, Jaya herself representing it twice in 2015 and 2016, is now an unpredictable contest. Jaya’s niece Deepa Jayakumar also filed her nomination, bidding for the legacy of her aunt, but her papers were rejected.

Tamil Nadu also witnessed many other twists and turns and new political equations have emerged in the past one year. The first is the end of strong leaders in the state. There is a leadership crisis not only in the AIADMK but also in other parties. The rival nonagenarian DMK chief M. Karunanidhi has taken a back seat due to his deteriorating health, leaving the field to his son M.K. Stalin. Obviously, the son does not have the same charisma with the result it will be an acid test for him to prove his leadership qualities in the upcoming bye-election. However, the DMK candidate Maruthu Ganesh is emerging stronger with the support of the Congress, Vidudalai Chiruththai Katch, Left parties and other fringe parties. The R.K. Nagar bye polls will also show who has inherited Jaya’s legacy when the results are out on December 24.

Even in other parties there is no leader worth the name who could fill the vacuum caused by the death of Jayalalithaa. The Congress has no strong leader. The BJP sees an opportunity to find some space in Tamil Nadu but it will be difficult as it does not fit into the Dravidian milieu. There is a perception that the BJP controls the ruling united AIADMK. Other regional outfits like the DMDK, PMK and MDMK have caste-based leaders and even film actors like Captain Vijayakant had proved they couldn’t sustain for more than one or two elections. Jaya’s death has emboldened film stars like Rajinikant, Kamal Hasan and Vishal to eye politics as an avenue. Vishal’s nomination as an independent has been rejected.

The upcoming bye-poll is crucial. Apart from providing indications on who inherits Jaya’s legacy, it will also prove crucial for Stalin, Dinakaran and the ruling combine.