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Ferment intensifies

Lebanon, which historically has lunged from crisis to crisis, is now at the core of the struggle between two pivotal…

Ferment intensifies

Saad Hariri (Photo: Facebook)

Lebanon, which historically has lunged from crisis to crisis, is now at the core of the struggle between two pivotal regional powers ~ Iran and Saudi Arabia. The recent resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri is more a symptom of that struggle than the outcome of domestic discord in his country.

Of course, he had blamed Iranian influence, and had even expressed fears of his assassination. The regional plot has thickened with Saudi Arabia advising its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately. Whether or not Hariri was forced to resign by the palace in Riyadh can only be speculated upon; the fact that he remains in Saudi Arabia has fuelled speculation that he might have been “abducted” by those now at the helm of the desert kingdom.

Markedly, his resignation coincided with the shooting down of a missile in the vicinity of Riyadh, provoking Saudi Arabia to blame Hezbollah and its patron, Iran, for what it calls “this act of war”. Fears that this standoff could escalate into an outright military clash are dangerously real. Central to the current bout of sub-regional tension is the desert kingdom’s concern that Iran is intent on completing its establishment of a “Shia crescent” across the region.

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Arguably, this is a logical corollary of its support for Bashar al-Assad and the fight against ISIS. The Middle East cauldron is on the boil, more so after President Trump has virtually jettisoned Barack Obama’s feelers to Iran, exemplified with the momentous nuclear deal. Israel is yet another factor in the overall geostrategic construct. Iran has now emerged as a confident and well-armed foe, and this has set alarm bells ringing from Riyadh to Tel-Aviv.

Hezbollah is far from weakened, and Lebanon has been caught in the vortex of the mounting ferment that is almost reminiscent of the devastating conflict of 2006.

The dramatis personnae has been no less unnerving, chiefly the emergence of Saudi Arabia’s new Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and the trans-Atlantic machinations of President Trump. Iran’s intent to achieve unprecedented influence has doubtless deepened tension in a swathe of the Middle East, indeed lending a new dimension to the ferment that has been building up for a while.

Instead of using its influence to rein in Riyadh, White House is reported to have given a “blank cheque” to the Saudi prince… in effect making the waters murkier.

The French President, Emanuel Macron’s visit to the Saudi capital does point to an effort to calm the waters, but how much influence Europe can exert remains rather uncertain. Russia’s plans and interests in the region are another critical, and opaque, issue.

For Saudi Arabia, the war with Yemen has turned out to be disastrous. There is a vacuum at the helm in Lebanon. And it shall not be easy for a theocratic Saudi Arabia to forge an overt alliance with Israel.

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