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Can Abe ‘take back Japan’?

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for a national snap election on the grounds of a growing , but political…

Can Abe ‘take back Japan’?

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (Photo: AFP)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for a national snap election on the grounds of a growing , but political analysts believe it was a combined effort to leverage mounting opposition disarray, his rebound support among voters after a string of scandals and his tough stance on North Korea.

Abe stood his previous and ongoing elections with the popular slogan “Nippon o Torimodosu” (Take Back Japan). In March, the ruling Liberal Democrat Party voted to amend its rules to allow a leader to serve three consecutive terms, thereby allowing Abe to contest. Despite his brief unpopularity, he is expected to win the October 22 election to become Japan’s longest serving Prime Minister. Abe was first enmeshed in scandals for being somewhat nepotistic in doling out favours to friendly school owners.

Then came the issue of the cover up of internal records of the danger faced by Japanese Self Defence Forces (SDF) in South Sudan over which the former Defence Minister Tomomi Inada had to resign.

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He was widely criticised for supporting Inada’s concealment of her ministry’s wrongdoing, ergo his approval rating fell to its lowest of 30 per cent early this year, as reported by the Japan Times. Ever since, he has been constantly reworking his public image to regain public trust. Moreover, his proposed 2020 revision to include the SDF in the pacifist 70- year-old Constitution was disapproved by 43 per cent of voters according to the Yomiuri newspaper.

In fact, even his decision to call for a snap election last month was disapproved by 64.30 per cent of those polled by Japan’s Mainichi national daily newspaper. Notwithstanding the criticism, Abe is likely to win: not for his weak decision to call for a snap election, but for a fusion of geopolitical, economic and local conditions. For one, he is faced by virtually no competition in the run for the 465 seats to the Diet.

At first it seemed as if the main opposition Democratic Party, led by Seiji Maehara could stand a chance until Maehara chickened out and essentially merged with Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope. For a brief while afterward, Abe’s real competition came from Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope that was formed on the day of the snap election announcement.

She won by a large margin against Abe’s Liberal Democrats in the 2016 race for Tokyo Governor. She is hugely popular, is considered media-savvy and provided a fresh option to the public. She could have been Japan’s first female prime minister but mysteriously announced she will not be running. Consequently, the Party of Hope’s ratings fell with voters unsure of whom they would be voting for as Prime Minister.

Coupled with a lack of real competition, Abe will be aided by the steadily growing Japanese economy. Abenomics was criticised for failing to bolster consumer spending within Japan, but the situation is now turning around.

The economy is doing better and Abenomics has not only helped exports but is also keeping the third largest economy, after USA and China, afloat, and spending by Japanese consumers and businesses has increased. This is viewed positively by voters. Yet there is scepticism over Japan’s aging and the demographic problem. Japan’s biggest problem however remains North Korea.

In September, North Korean missiles flew over the country prompting Abe to declare at the United Nations General Assembly that “dialogue for the purpose of having dialogue is meaningless” as this is “indisputably a matter of urgency”.

He successfully pushed for sanctions against North Korea and is applauded for effectively tackling the situation despite threats from a North Korean government organisation that claimed Japan should be “sunken into the sea by the nuclear bomb of Juche”.

The US too will hope for another Abe term to balance North Korea’s power. Earlier, US President Donald Trump had warned that if North Korea were to fire at Guam (US military base), it would prompt a military response and Abe is sure to strongly support this. Finally, Abe is known for his diplomacy in the international arena. He generally gets his way with Trump and is often referred to as his “phone buddy”.

For voters, a strong ally with the US translates to a stronger and safer Japan in the backdrop of increasing threats from North Korea. With the withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) it will be wise for Japan to take up a strong leadership role in Asia, supported by India, to counterbalance the might of China.

Regardless of the outcome of the election, what became clear to many was the motive of the snap election – an effort to remain in power leveraging the multiple forces at play.

While this may be a relatively easy win for Abe, he needs to work harder to strengthen the economy, deal with an ageing population and continue to counter North Korea effectively. Will he take back Japan?

(The writer is associated with the Observer Research Foundation.)

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