David Cameron broke the long spell of Labour rule in 2010 when the Conservatives became the largest party in the British Parliament and formed the government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Under constant pressure from the fanatic anti-EU lobby among the Conservative members of parliament, David Cameron promised before the 2015 general election that a referendum on possible British withdrawal from the European Union (EU) would be held before the end of 2019 if the Conservatives won the re-election bid in 2015. In fact, the Conservatives won absolute majority in 2015 and David Cameron was safe in his saddle. He was personally against withdrawal from the EU and announced the referendum already in 2016 to stop the bickering of his anti-EU colleagues for the foreseeable future. As we all know this gamble failed and Brexit supporters narrowly won the referendum, forcing David Cameron to step down.

The new Prime Minister, Theresa May, was a soft antiBrexiteer (the ‘remain camp’} during the referendum campaign. As a compromise in a hopelessly divided Tory party she was made the Prime Minister, while she in her turn packed the Cabinet with hard pro-Brexiteers. With the Brexit negotiations expected to start soon, Ministers started to make contradictory statements about Britain’s negotiating stands which led Ms May to utter the memorable statement ~ “Brexit is Brexit”. A senior EU politician retorted that this was just as meaningless as saying that “Breakfast is breakfast.”

Internal squabbles within the Labour party were even worse. After the second consecutive electoral defeat by the Tories, the rank and file of the Labour elected an obscure backbench MP for thirty years, Jeremy Corbyn, as their national leader. Corbyn voted consistently against the military, austerity (affecting the lower class) and globalisation (benefiting the upper class) policies of his own party in Parliament during the era of Tony Blair. The party elites, including 80 per cent of the sitting MPs refused to accept him as their leader. In the subsequent election forced by them, Corbyn was again elected as the party leader with increased majority.

Jeremy Corbyn was originally a soft pro-Brexiteer, but during the Brexit referendum he took the position of a soft antiBrexiteer, or more aptly, a neutral one. His lacklustre campaign drew flak from opponents in his own party and they propagated a doomsday scenario if Labour were to fight the general election under his leadership. In opinion polls Labour was trailing the Conservatives by more that 20 percentage points. Since Ms May never won an election for the Conservatives and was unable to take total control of the Brexit debate in Britain, she seized the opportunity and unexpectedly declared a general election on June 8 of this month, ostensibly for a stronger hand in the Brexit negotiations. The decision turned out to be disastrous for her and her party, as she lost the absolute majority in Parliament that made her negotiating position in Brussels precarious.

Although the Conservatives won the largest number of seats, the real winner of the election was Jeremy Corbyn. He stunned everyone by his vigorous campaign with a personal touch, in sharp contrast to the mechanical campaign of Theresa May. Someone observed that her face remains the same whether she rejoices or grimaces. Corbyn focused on the economic plight of the bottom half of the population, while Ms May hammered on the Brexit debate. The youth did not take the Brexit referendum very seriously and were stunned by the outcome. This time they showed up massively at the polling booths and voted for Labour. The Labour Party won 30 extra parliamentary seats and Corbyn became an overnight hero of British politics.

Theresa May needed a partner, either in coalition or with outside support, in order to stitch a majority in Parliament. She decided to tie up with the small regional Democratic Ulster Unionist party (DUP) of Northern Ireland that have ten seats. But that strategy is fraught with dangers on many fronts. DUP represents a large section of Presbyterian (Protestant) church goers who were implanted into Ireland from Scotland long ago by the English to change the Catholic demographics of their colony in Ireland as the Irish were fighting for their independence. This gave the excuse for the English to keep a small part of Ireland within the United Kingdom when they were forced to grant Ireland her independence. These ultra conservative Protestants are an anachronism in liberal Britain with their opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage. They also form a delicate balance with the Catholic Sinn Fein Party to maintain the fragile peace in Northern Ireland after the so-called Good Friday accord following decades of strife and bloodshed. A British government with DUP support may destroy this hard achieved peace in Northern Ireland.

One common goal of all residents of Northern Ireland is to keep a free Irish border to benefit from the spectacular economic growth of the Irish Republic. This means “soft’ Brexit, where Britain remains a member of the European Economic Area, like Norway or Switzerland, which means that they participate in the common market, but not in the Customs Union. But that is anathema to majority Conservative MPs, as that would force them to accept unconditional entry of EU citizens into their country. They made fun of the prolonged weakness of the European economies and talked about a new trade arrangement among the Anglophone countries, with the help of their lackeys in their former colonies. The intense pressure from them led Theresa May to proclaim more than once that “a bad deal is worse than no deal.” This infuriated the remaining 27 EU members, who in a rare show of unity approved the negotiating position of the European negotiators in a meeting within three minutes.

In the meantime, the EU economies are showing signs of growth after years of stagnation. There are signs of vitality that are spreading from the North to the South in an overall economic regeneration.

By contrast, the British economy is suddenly showing weakness on all fronts, with lacklustre growth, higher inflation and slowly rising wages. Experts predict worse if the Brexit negotiations lead to nowhere. Britain’s claim to superior anti-terrorist capabilities look suspicious after a series of terrorist acts in the last couple of months. The devastating fire in the tower flat inhabited by lower middle class people, within the richest burrow in the country, laid bare the stark economic inequality in the country. Theresa May did not even dare to confront the victims who are her own countrymen and whom she is supposed to govern. The chaos in Britain is now complete.

The Brexit negotiations started on Monday, June 19, as planned, although the British negotiating position is as fuzzy as ever. The Finance Minister, Philip Hammond, is publicly talking about a ‘soft’ Brexit, contradicting the position of the chief British negotiator David Davis. The government was still in a limbo on that day as the original announcement of the Queen’s speech to be held on that day was postponed till Wednesday for lack of final agreement with the DUP about forming a governing majority in the aftermath of the Queen’s speech. The shape of the new government with the list of ministers and their portfolios are still anyone’s guess. On the political front the situation in the EU is also completely different. After Emmanuel Macron’s overwhelming victory in the presidential election, his newly formed political party En Marche! has now achieved a landslide victory in the National Assembly. He has now a free hand in implementing economic reforms to bring new vitality to the French economy without being bogged down by the opposition. With Angela Merkel expected to remain the Chancellor in Germany after the September election there, there seems to be a new determination shared by the major leaders to push further the European project.Theresa May’s only support may now come from Donald Trump. It is Brexit and Trump’s victory that, on the other hand, have shaken the Europeans from their comfortable position of relying on the US security umbrella under all circumstances. Brexit negotiations are coinciding with many new developments that are forcing Europeans to adjust their international roles. Brexit seems to have given Europe a new momentum for further integration.