While most minds in Himachal Pradesh are set on 18 December (when the Assembly poll results will be out), strong speculation (sometimes rather wild) is doing the rounds. There were times when such speculation in this small state contained a grain of truth because they were in reality “information leaks” through “minor” sources like PAs, drivers, cooks, etc, who “happened” to have overheard conversations on phones and mobiles of their masters. They did serve as alerts.

It is generally agreed that the Congress is no pushover in the polls, as considered a few months ago. Political observers also agree that the campaigns in several key constituencies have been “very tough” and the margins of victory will be low. In many cases, it may be a “narrow escape” for the winning candidates. Even while some “studies and surveys” have predicted a clean majority for BJP ~ a few other such exercises have indicated a similar victory to the ruling Congress party. But everybody agrees that dissidence with its consequent under-cutting of votes by disgruntled elements in both parties is quite high and may tilt the scales either way.

In all, however, most political analysts have hinted to The Statesman that “the BJP enjoys an edge over the rival party” in these elections. Apart from ground reports, they base this comment on the fact that these parties have won the Assembly elections alternatively for well over the past two decades. Add to it the general feeling that having the same party ruling at both the Centre and the state will be more beneficial to development.

They also whisper that campaigns by the two strong leaders ~ Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah ~ will “somehow” ensure the party’s victory in both Himachal and Gujarat. Asked why, most of them merely smirk and attribute it to the political shrewdness of these leaders and their experience in reading the ground realities accurately in both states. While they hail from Gujarat, Modi worked as the party’s observer in Himachal Pradesh during the Assembly elections of 1997. He lived and mingled with local people and toured the state extensively.

“He made many personal friends here, understands the way the minds of Himachalis work just like the back of his palm,” claim even ordinary BJP functionaries in the state.  As an example, they cite the declaration of Prem Kumar Dhumal as the party’s chief ministerial candidate ~ though barely a few days before the polls ~ despite the party’s earlier stand that it would not do so before the polls. It also put to rest rumours that “a dark horse” would be chosen for the top post by the Centre and sorted out the widespread confusion and dissatisfaction in the party ranks. Obviously, the two leaders had read the people’s mood correctly and just in time.

While a clear majority for BJP will cause no upheaval, a close call may offer an opportunity to Virbhadra Singh’s rivals within the Congress to cross over. There have been reports of some Congress leaders being “in touch” with the BJP top brass.  According to some reports, they would be ready to accept at the “right time” if “appropriate positions” are offered. If these reports are true, there may be high drama after the poll results come out if the margin between the two major parties is narrow. With the BJP perceived as “all powerful” at the Centre, the rather anaemic looking Congress still trying to gather its wits and build up resources in the country may be no match.

Another “strong suspicion” doing the rounds is about the chances of Virbhadra Singh being “allowed” to head the government even in case his party gets majority. What will happen, if the DA (Disproportionate Assets) case against him, his wife and son being probed by the CBI gains momentum now, or soon after the poll results? Suppose it goes against him, and results in conviction? This is a question bothering his loyalists. Another doubt in people’s mind is how far will the implications of the recent sensational gang-rape and murder (of a 16-year-old school girl) in Kotkhai stretch.

The CBI investigating the case has arrested Zaidi, IG (police), who had earlier headed the SIT team probing the case under the orders of the state government. Just the other day, the then Superintendent of Police, Shimla, D W Negi, who was also a member of the SIT ,was arrested by CBI. He was reported be in the “close circles” of the chief minister’s confidantes. Dangerous speculation is in the air.